Cold temperatures are much more deadly than warming

“Since the 1980s, deaths attributable to excessive heat have declined, whereas deaths attributable to cold weather have not.” click here

General circulation climate models (GCMs) are unreliable and arbitrary

Patrick Frank. Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections. Front. Earth Sci., 06 September 2019 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00223

The reliability of general circulation climate model (GCM) global air temperature projections is evaluated for the first time, by way of propagation of model calibration error. An extensive series of demonstrations show that GCM air temperature projections are just linear extrapolations of fractional greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Linear projections are subject to linear propagation of error. A directly relevant GCM calibration metric is the annual average ±12.1% error in global annual average cloud fraction produced within CMIP5 climate models. This error is strongly pair-wise correlated across models, implying a source in deficient theory. The resulting long-wave cloud forcing (LWCF) error introduces an annual average ±4 Wm–2 uncertainty into the simulated tropospheric thermal energy flux. This annual ±4 Wm–2simulation uncertainty is ±114 × larger than the annual average ∼0.035 Wm–2 change in tropospheric thermal energy flux produced by increasing GHG forcing since 1979. Tropospheric thermal energy flux is the determinant of global air temperature. Uncertainty in simulated tropospheric thermal energy flux imposes uncertainty on projected air temperature. Propagation of LWCF thermal energy flux error through the historically relevant 1988 projections of GISS Model II scenarios A, B, and C, the IPCC SRES scenarios CCC, B1, A1B, and A2, and the RCP scenarios of the 2013 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, uncovers a ±15 C uncertainty in air temperature at the end of a centennial-scale projection. Analogously large but previously unrecognized uncertainties must therefore exist in all the past and present air temperature projections and hindcasts of even advanced climate models. The unavoidable conclusion is that an anthropogenic air temperature signal cannot have been, nor presently can be, evidenced in climate observables.

Does low atmospheric carbon dioxide cause drought and extreme weather?

“From 1900 to 1970, the Northeast US was in drought most of the time, and was plagued with large forest fires. But since 1970, the Northeast has been wet and has had very little drought.” click here

Surface temperatures are cyclical

Media giants work to silence climate science

Separating truth from error regarding sea level change

“It is not going to be the end of the world”

“The head of the world’s foremost weather science organization issued a surprise rebuke to climate alarmists in remarks published on Sept. 6, marking what may be, according to some experts, one of the most significant developments in the climate debate in decades.” click here