Daily Archives: January 5, 2012

25 billion yuan to go for water resource protection in Hebei Province, China

North China’s Hebei province to invest about 4 billion US dollars by 2020 to protect water resources in over a dozen cities and counties around Beijing.

Click here for more…

Press Spin: Pulling out the stops to kill New Jersey bill

Does the bill pending before the NJ legislature violate EPA rules? Or is this just  a play to set the political stage to claim that the Republican Governor (and other NJ Republicans) are irresponsible and hate the environment?

Expect the generic political argument of “circumventing protections for drinkng water” to become more frequent here and in other states as the political year progresses. Drinking water is the lever and hammer of the statists, leftists, activists, or whatever label they choose.

There is a valid concern generally for protecting watersheds, but this does not mean “no development” as environmental activists argue.

What does the NJ bill do? Well, instead of a rational analysis, this typical press story reports the sky may fall to bolster a state politician….click here.

Press Spin: Haloacetic acid public notice is water utility opportunity

Some water systems have seasonally high haloacetic acid concentrations that could result in exceeding the MCL for haloacetic acids (HAA). If an exceedence occurs the news headline will likely be alarmist like this one…click here… the water system should be prepared to tell its side of the story…..say what you are doing to protect the public….if system improvements are needed, then say so in a way that will generate support for the needed funding…

Scafetta 20011: Testing an astronomically-based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models

This study compares the IPCC 2007 models with a proposed astronomical empirical climate model that assumes the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that have been associated to solar system planetary motion. The author concludes:

“The scientific method requires that a physical model fulfils two conditions: it has to reconstruct and predict (or forecast) physical observations. Herein, we have found that the GCMs used by the IPCC (2007) seriously fail to properly reconstruct even the large multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature which have a climatic meaning. Consequently, the IPCC projections for the 21st century cannot be trusted.” 

N. Scafetta. Testing an astronomically-based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, (2011) doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2011.12.005

 Abstract: We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all CMIP3 available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed astronomical empirical climate model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that, in previous works (Scafetta, 2010b, 2011b), have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, which is mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model (which herein uses cycles with 9.1, 10–10.5, 20–21, 60–62 year periods) is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is shown to be able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850–1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10–10.5, 20–21 and 60–62 year cycles are synchronous to solar and heliospheric planetary oscillations. We show that the IPCC GCM’s claim that all warming observed from 1970 to 2000 has been anthropogenically induced is erroneous because of the GCM failure in reconstructing the quasi 20-year and 60-year climatic cycles. Finally, we show how the presence of these large natural cycles can be used to correct the IPCC projected anthropogenic warming trend for the 21st century. By combining this corrected trend with the natural cycles, we show that the temperature may not significantly increase during the next 30 years mostly because of the negative phase of the 60-year cycle. If multisecular natural cycles (which according to some authors have significantly contributed to the observed 1700–010 warming and may contribute to an additional natural cooling by 2100) are ignored, the same IPCC projected anthropogenic emissions would imply a global warming by about 0.3–1.2 C by 2100, contrary to the IPCC 1.0–3.6 C projected warming. The results of this paper reinforce previous claims that the relevant physical mechanisms that explain the detected climatic cycles are still missing in the current GCMs and that climate variations at the multidecadal scales are astronomically induced and, in first approximation, can be forecast.

 Click here for the full paper in press (free).


Trace levels of emerging contaminants found in Santa Ana River (CA)

Click here for a brief news report on monitoring for emerging contaminants in the Santa Ana River by the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority,  Riverside, Califorina.

Do Piped Water and Flush Toilets Prevent Child Diarrhea in Rural Philippines?

J.J. Capuno, C.A. Tan, Jr., and V.M. Fabella. 2011. Do Piped Water and Flush Toilets Prevent Child Diarrhea in Rural Philippines? Asia Pac J Public Health.  Dec 20.

Abstract: Similar to other developing countries, diarrhea in the Philippines continues to be among the top causes of child mortality and morbidity. In pursuit of its Millennium Development Goals, the Philippine government commits to reduce child deaths and provide water and sanitation services to more rural households by 2015. Applying propensity score matching on the 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008 rounds of the National Demographic and Health Survey to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated, it is found that the incidence of diarrhea among under-5 children is lower by as much as 4.5% in households with access to piped water and 10% in those with their own flush toilets, relative to comparable households. These findings underscore the need to ensure the quality of drinking water from the pipe or from other improved sources at the point of use, and the provision of improved and own sanitation facilities.