This paper was announced the day before publication with a typical alarmist press release headline on an activist blog…click here. The abstract and link to the paper are below. This is a typical modeling simulation paper that is generated by the Boulder climate research groups. It down scales the global models to a smaller geographical area, allowing for a tighter mesh in the finite element modeling, but this does not necessarily improve upon the physics in the global model. The term “high resolution” is somewhat of a weasel word here….
These efforts result in impressive mathematical models at the research level. But how should they be used in practical decision-making and forecasting? Was the model validated using existing data? Is the underlying physics adequately representative? Does the model generate reliable forecasts? Many more questions like these should be asked before the output of such a model is incorporated into any type of water supply planning. Just think about it….These modelers claim to be able to predict what should be observable. Is this model better than what the weather forecasters use?
This article also provides insight into how the liberal/democrat “Colorado model” has worked…..The work was funded by PACE program (Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise) administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) and the Western Water Assessment (WWA). Who is Western Water Assessment? A cooperative effort of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES) and NOAA. CIRES is housed at the University of Colorado (UC-Boulder) and is composed of UC-Boulder faculty and a staff funded by NOAA. And don’t forget, UCAR runs the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). This is a very well-funded research network (to their credit they play the research funding game well)…but they generally produce only one particular type of climate research (scenario modeling), in a way that generates speculation and controversy…….These organizations are a shell game……all of the organizations mentioned above are or were controlled by democrat political appointess or have strong ties to the democrat party……certainly a very one-sided situation…
Years ago I suggested to a CU-Boulder faculty member that the climate researchers try to have a different point of view presented and try to dialog with others who disagreed with them (e.g., Bill Gray or others)…..they laughed….maybe the situation is different now? Perhaps. But then again, do pigs fly? I wonder….
Mahoney, K., M.A. Alexander, G. Thompson, J.J. Barsugli, and J.D. Scott. 2012. Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado’s mountains. Nature Climate Change, DOI: doi:10.1038/nclimate1344 Published online: 10 January 2012
The effect of a warming climate on hailstorm frequency and intensity is largely unknown. Global climate models have too coarse resolution to simulate hailstorms explicitly; thus it is unclear if a warmer climate will change hailstorm frequency and intensity, and if so, whether such events will become more likely through intensified thunderstorms or less likely owing to overall warmer conditions. Here we investigate hail generation and maintenance for warm-season extreme precipitation events in Colorado, USA, for both present-day and projected future climates using high-resolution model simulations capable of resolving hailstorms. Most simulations indicate a near-elimination of hail at the surface in future simulations for this region, despite more intense future storms and significantly larger amounts of hail generated in-cloud. An increase in the height of the environmental melting level due to climate warming is found to be the primary reason for the disappearance of surface hail, as the warmer atmosphere increases the melting of frozen precipitation. A decrease in future surface hail at high-elevation locations may imply potential changes in both hail damage and flood risk.
Click here to obtain the full paper (fee).