Daily Archives: July 29, 2012

Berkeley BEST turns out to be not so good after all?

The LA Times (or LA Slimes to some) covered the release of the results of the study by Berkeley professor Richard A. Muller. (click here) Unfortunately, the data analysis does not shed any new light because it is basically working with the same data as previous analyses. Of course, the media has ignored release of another study that undermines if not refutes the Muller work. click here…..

This is obviously a media play…..a last ditch effort…..to prop up a failing hypothesis…..For more news, click here, click here. For a detailed discussion of the BEST work, click here.

Update: For an explanation why the BEST papers did not pass peer-review, click here and click here.

UK Register: ‘Ex climate sceptic’ Muller’s latest BEST stuff is the worst so far (click here)

 

US Surface temperature station siting analysis shows substantial upward bias

PRESS RELEASE – U.S. Temperature trends show a spurious doubling due to NOAA station siting problems and post measurement adjustments.

Chico, CA July 29th, 2012 – 12 PM PDT – FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

A reanalysis of U.S. surface station temperatures has been performed using the recently WMO-approved Siting Classification System devised by METEO-France’s Michel Leroy. The new siting classification more accurately characterizes the quality of the location in terms of monitoring long-term spatially representative surface temperature trends. The new analysis demonstrates that reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled, with 92% of that over-estimation resulting from erroneous NOAA adjustments of well-sited stations upward. The paper is the first to use the updated siting system which addresses USHCN siting issues and data adjustments.

The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data. This issue of station siting quality is expected to be an issue with respect to the monitoring of land surface temperature throughout the Global Historical Climate Network and in the BEST network.

Today, a new paper has been released that is the culmination of knowledge gleaned from five years of work by Anthony Watts and the many volunteers and contributors to the SurfaceStations project started in 2007.

This pre-publication draft paper, titled An area and distance weighted analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends, is co-authored by Anthony Watts of California, Evan Jones of New York, Stephen McIntyre of Toronto, Canada, and Dr. John R. Christy from the Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama, Huntsville, is to be submitted for publication.

Click here for the full press release, detailed discussion, and the draft paper at Watts Up With That. Click here for the reaction in Germany.