Monthly Archives: August 2012

New Jersey Mean Surface Temperature, 1743-2011

Using the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) data here, the following plot was created. It represents regional climate change for the State of New Jersey. The plot shows the mean monthly surface temperature, the mean daily maximum surface temperature, and the mean daily minimum surface temperture. Compare the plot below with that proivided here based on the same underlying data.

New Jersey Governor Chris Cristy has talked up “climate change” as posing a big threat to the state. Corporate groups like the American Water Works Service company have also gone along with the global warming crowd. But does the science support this? More work needs to be done examining the BEST data, but this first cut suggests not much is going on to be alarmed about. The historical record suggests a very broad yet defined band of highly variable temperatures.

Changes in atmospheric CO2 lag temperature changes…

Humlum, O., Stordahl, K., Solheim, J.E. The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature. Global and Planetary Change, Available online 30 August 2012.

Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2 variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2. In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets; 1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO2 data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data, 3) GISS surface air temperature data, 4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea surface data, 6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series, 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO2, and 8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions. Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and 8), and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8), but with changes in CO2 always lagging changes in temperature. The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5-10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 is high, but do not explain all observed changes.

Click here for full paper (open source).

Antarctic ice still growing…

The National Ice Center data shows plenty of ice in the antarctic.

Massachusetts mean monthly surface temperatures, 1743-2011

Using the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) data here, the following plot was created. It represents regional climate change for the State of Massachusetts. The plot shows the mean monthly surface temperature, the 95% upper confidence levels for the daily high temperature, and the 95% lower confidence levels for the daily low temperature. Compare the plot below with that proivided here based on the same underlying data.

Massachusetts has enacted climate rules (click here)….and I would be surprised if those rules in any way affected the variability of temperatures experienced in the state. The historical record suggests a very broad defined band, yet highly variable range of temperatures. Can you see the hockey stick? No? That’s because there isn’t one!

Mitt Romney and his advisors need to correct their views on global warming and “climate change” to reflect the physical reality. The climate changes…it always has…and CO2 plays little, if any role.

Germany hits breaks on renewable energy

Rising energy costs have forced Germany to reconsider their push to renewable energy. Click here for Spiegel Online article….

Droughts and floods due to natural variability

Hoerling, M., J.Eischeid, J.Perlwitz, 2010. Regional Precipitation Trends: Distinguishing Natural Variability from Anthropogenic Forcing. J. Climate, 23, 2131–2145. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3420.1

In this study, the nature and causes for observed regional precipitation trends during 1977–2006 are diagnosed. It is found that major features of regional trends in annual precipitation during 1977–2006 are consistent with an atmospheric response to observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability. This includes drying over the eastern Pacific Ocean that extends into western portions of the Americas related to a cooling of eastern Pacific SSTs, and broad increases in rainfall over the tropical Eastern Hemisphere, including a Sahelian rainfall recovery and increased wetness over the Indo–West Pacific related to North Atlantic and Indo–West Pacific ocean warming. It is further determined that these relationships between SST and rainfall change are generally not symptomatic of human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The intensity of regional trends simulated in climate models using observed time variability in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosol, and solar and volcanic aerosol forcing are appreciably weaker than those observed and also weaker than those simulated in atmospheric models using only observed SST forcing. The pattern of rainfall trends occurring in response to such external radiative forcing also departs significantly from observations, especially a simulated increase in rainfall over the tropical Pacific and southeastern Australia that are opposite in sign to the actual drying in these areas.

Additional experiments illustrate that the discrepancy between observed and GHG-forced rainfall changes during 1977–2006 results mostly from the differences between observed and externally forced SST trends. Only weak rainfall sensitivity is found to occur in response to the uniform distribution of SST warming that is induced by GHG and aerosol forcing, whereas the particular pattern of the observed SST change that includes an increased SST contrast between the east Pacific and the Indian Ocean, and strong regional warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, was a key driver of regional rainfall trends. The results of this attribution study on the causes for 1977–2006 regional rainfall changes are used to discuss prediction challenges including the likelihood that recent rainfall trends might persist.

Click here for the full paper (fee).

 

What’s all the fuss about arctic ice?

Ice in the arctic and antarctic are cyclical phenomena…..some years more, some years less.  Recently claims have been made that climate disaster is brewing evidenced by the low ice in the arctic and Greenland….So what? The National Ice Center shows the current arctic ice is still not as low as 2007, but even if it reaches below 2007, what is the big deal? Below is a graph of arctic ice for 2008-2012 period. I’d say forget about it….Iran with a nuclear missile and unrest in Egypt and elsewhere present a greater threat to humanity than anything having to do with climate….