Daily Archives: November 22, 2012

The idea of UN “global governance” due to global warming based on faulty models is a non-starter…..it’s not going to happen

The idea of global governance by the UN IPCC or some other regulatory body to radically change the lives of everyone on planet earth put forward by Christiana Figueres (click here) is wishful thinking at the very best…..and more like complete foolishness…..this is simply not the pathway to travel in 0rder to address the problem of changing climate….

Cryptosporidiosis Surveillance Data — United States, 2009–2010

FIGURE 1. Incidence* of cryptosporidiosis, by year — National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, United States, 1995–2010

This figure is a bar graph that reflects the incidence (per 100,000 population) of cryptosporidiosis, by year, during 1995-2009, as reported to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, United States. Incidence is classified using one of three descriptions: probable, confirmed, and non-outbreak. The number of cases reported during 2009-2010 decreased from the previous reporting periods but remain historically elevated. The rate of reported cryptosporidiosis in the United States was stable during 1995-2003, with annual rates ranging 0.4-1.3/100,000 population and an annual increase of 1.4%. During 2003-2007, the annual rate of reported cryptosporidiosis cases increased by 32.5% each year. Incidence rates peaked in 2007 at 3.9 per 100,000 population. During 2007-2010, incidence rates declined 10.5% per year. * Per 100,000 population. † N = 85,514.  § First full year of national reporting.

FIGURE 2. Incidence* of cryptosporidiosis, by reporting jurisdiction — National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, United States, 2010

The U.S. map below shows the number and rate (per 100,000 population) of cryptosporidiosis reported in each state, by reporting jurisdiction, for 2010, as reported to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, United States. By region, the rate of reported cryptosporidiosis cases per 100,000 population ranged from 1.5 in the Southwest to 4.3 in the Midwest in 2009 and 1.4 in the Southwest to 6.4 in the Midwest in 2010.  Abbreviations: NYC = New York City, DC = District of Columbia.  * Per 100,000 population.

FIGURE 3. Number* of cryptosporidiosis case reports, by date of symptom onset — National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, United States, 2009–2010

The line graph below reflects the number of cryptosporidiosis case reports, by month of symptom onset, as reported to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, United States. During 2009-2010, the date of symptom onset was reported for 12,226 (73.6%) of the 16,607 cases reported. The number of cases by symptom onset peaked in mid-August (n = 1,077), which was 4.5 times larger than the lowest number of cases by symptom onset in late December (n = 237). * N = 16,607; date of onset for 4,381 patients was unknown.

FIGURE 4. Number* and average annual rate of cryptosporidiosis case reports, by age group and year—National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, United States, 2009–2010

This figure is a bar graph with a trend line that presents the number and rate (per 100,000 population) of cryptosporidiosis case reports, by age group and year, for 2009-2010, as reported to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, United States. The graph shows that the number of reported cryptosporidiosis cases and rates were highest among children aged 1-4 years, followed by those aged 5-9 years, and then adults aged 25-29 years. * N = 16,607; age for 214 patients was unknown.  † Incidence per 100,000 population.

FIGURE 5. Incidence* of cryptosporidiosis, by sex and age group — National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, United States, 2009–2010

This figure is a line graph that reflects the incidence of cryptosporidiosis, by sex and age group (persons aged <1 year->65 years), for 2009-2010, as reported to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, United States. The graph shows that the annual incidence rate by sex ranged from 2.3 to 2.9 per 100,000 population for males and females. * Per 100,000 population.

Click here for the complete analysis by the CDC.

Climate models deficient in simulating cyclone activity….

Anne Sophie Daloz, Fabrice Chauvin, Kevin Walsh, Sally Lavender, Deborah Abbs, Frank Roux. The ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and their precursors over the North Atlantic main development region. Climate Dynamics (2012) 39:1559–1576. DOI 10.1007/s00382-012-1290-7

The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to generate Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR; 10–20N, 20–80W; Goldenberg and Shapiro in J Clim 9:1169–1187, 1996) is examined through a subset of ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set and a highresolution (0.5) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)-forced simulation from the Australian Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model GCM. The results are compared with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) reanalyses over a common period from 1980 to 1998. Important biases in the representation of the TC activity are encountered over the MDR. This study emphasizes the strong link in the GCMs between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and TC activity in this region. However, the generation of AEWs is not a sufficient condition alone for the models to produce TCs. Precipitation over the Sahel, especially rainfall over the Fouta Djallon highlands (cf. Fig. 1), is playing a role in the generation of TCs over the MDR. The influence of large-scale fields such as SST, vertical wind shear and tropospheric humidity on TC genesis is also examined. The ability of TC genesis indices, such as the Genesis Potential Index and the Convective Yearly Genesis Potential, to represent TC activity over the MDR in simulations at low to high spatial resolutions is analysed. These indices are found to be a reasonable method for comparing cyclogenesis in different models, even though other factors such as AEW activity should also be considered.

Click here for full paper (Open Source).

Siberia temperatures higher during Holocene Climate Optimum

Larisa Nazarova, Herman Lüpfert, Dmitry Subetto, Ludmila Pestryakova, Bernhard Diekmann. Holocene climate conditions in central Yakutia (Eastern Siberia) inferred from sediment composition and fossil chironomids of Lake Temje. Quaternary International, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.11.006

A 380 cm long sediment core from Lake Temje (central Yakutia, Eastern Siberia) was studied to infer Holocene palaeoenvironmental change in the extreme periglacial setting of eastern Siberia during the last 10,000 years. Data on sediment composition were used to characterize changes in the depositional environment during the ontogenetic development of the Lake Temje. The analysis of fossil chironomid remains and statistical treatment of chironomid data by the application of a newly developed regional Russian transfer functions provided inferences of mean July air temperatures (TJuly) and water depths (WD). Reconstructed WDs show minor changes throughout the core and range between 80 and 120 cm. All the fluctuations in reconstructed water depth lie within the mean error of prediction of the inference model (RMSEP = 0.35) so it is not possible to draw conclusions from the reconstructions. A qualitative and quantitative reconstruction of Holocene climate in central Yakutia recognized three stages of palaeoenvironmental changes. The early Holocene between 10 and 8 ka BP was characterized by colder-than-today and moist summer conditions. Cryotextures in the lake sediments document full freezing of the lake water during the winter time. A general warming trend started around 8.0 ka BP in concert with enhanced biological productivity. Reconstructed mean TJuly were equal or up to 1.5 °C higher than today between 6.0 ka and 5.0 ka BP. During the entire late Holocene after 4.8 ka BP, reconstructed mean TJuly remained below modern value. Limnological conditions did not change significantly. The inference of a mid-Holocene climate optimum supports scenarios of Holocene climatic changes in the subpolar part of eastern Siberia and indicates climate teleconnections to the North Atlantic realm.

Click here for full paper (fee).