Daily Archives: November 29, 2012

Human-caused climate signal lost in the computer code, creative fiction emerges

No matter how sophisticated the computer models, whether it is 1 or 100 models, definitive attribution or detection of a climate signal such as being made here is speculation…..or wishful thinking…..this “science” by press release is not science…..

Humans are part of the ecosystem…..it is not possible for humans to not be apart of the climate and ecosystem…..

Tropical cyclone activity has not increased….

The claim that tropical cyclone activity has some how increased due to “climate change” is simply false…..

M. Chenoweth, D. Divine. Tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles: descriptive statistics and historical variability in cyclone energy, 1638–2009. Climatic Change, August 2012, Volume 113, Issue 3-4, pp 583-598.

The history of tropical cyclone activity in the Lesser Antilles since 1638 is described using a recently created data set first described in Chenoweth and Divine (Geochem Geophys Geosyst 9: Q08013, 2008). We examine through descriptive statistics the seasonality of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles for tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes since 1690 and for hurricanes only since 1638. In addition, the maximum estimated wind speed (expressed in knots) (Vmax2) for each tropical cyclone passing through 61.5°W is used to produce “Lesser Antilles accumulated Cyclone Energy” (LACE) for each year along the 61.5°W meridian. LACE is positively correlated with basin-wide Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) since 1899 with the highest correlations from 10 to 25°N. There is no evidence of long-term trend in LACE, which is in accord with previously-documented absence of long-term trends in the numbers of tropical cyclones passing through the Lesser Antilles. There is pronounced ~50–70 year variability in LACE from 18 to 25°N most likely associated with multi-decadal variations in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature. The LACE variations at the shorter time scales of ~3 to 8 years are coherent with correspondent fluctuations in ENSO with its effect more pronounced at lower latitudes.

Click here for the full paper (Open Source).


Sea level rise is slowing….

No increase in extreme weather in Europe over past 250 years

Böhm, R. Changes of regional climate variability in central Europe during the past 250 years. The European Physical Journal Plus, Volume 127, article id. #54

The paper uses the data potential of very long and homogenized instrumental climate time series in the south central Europe for analyzing one feature which is very dominant in the climate change debate –whether anthropogenic climate warming causes or goes along with an increase of climate extremes. The monthly resolved data of the HISTALP data collection provide 58 single series for the three climate elements, air pressure, air temperature and precipitation, that start earlier than 1831 and extend back to 1760 in some cases. Trends and long-term low frequent climate evolution is only shortly touched in the paper. The main goal is the analysis of trends or changes of high frequent interannual and interseasonal variability. In other words, it is features like extremely hot summers, very cold winters, excessively dry or wet seasons which the study aims at. The methods used are based on detrended highpass series whose variance is analyzed in discrete 30-year windows moving over the entire instrumental period. The analysis of discrete subintervals relies on the unique number of 8 (for precipitation 7) such “normal periods”. The second approach is based on the same subintervals though not in fixed but moving windows over the entire instrumental period. The first result of the study is the clear evidence that there has been no increase of variability during the past 250 years in the region. The second finding is similar but concentrates on the recent three decades which are of particular interest because they are the first 30 years with dominating anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. We can show that also this recent anthropogenic normal period shows no widening of the PDF (probability density function) compared to the preceding ones. The third finding is based on the moving window technique. It shows that interannual variability changes show a clear centennial oscillating structure for all three climate elements in the region. For the time being we have no explanation for this empirical evidence. We argue that it should not be an artifact of any remaining data problems, but of course a centennial cyclic effect based on 250 years of data only is not really well consolidated in terms of sample length. But it is at least an interesting new feature and the subject is open for scientific discussion and for further studies dealing with circulation effects, long-term memories in the oceans etc.

Click here for the full paper (Open Source).