Daily Archives: December 3, 2012

United Nations seeks central control…

Deep climate cooling expected 2014 and beyond…

Kh. I. Abdusamatov. Bicentennial Decrease of the Solar Constant Leads to the Earth’s Unbalanced Heat Budget and Deep Climate Cooling. Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies, 2012, Vol. 28, No. 2, pp. 62–68. DOI: 10.3103/S088459131202002X

Longwave energy emitted by the Earth–atmosphere into space is characterized by changes in power over time that always lag behind the changes in power of the absorbed solar radiation due to slow variation in enthalpy of the Earth–atmosphere system. Longterm variation of the solar energy radiation absorbed by the Earth remains uncompensated by the energy radiated into space over the interval of time that is determined by the thermal inertia. The basic state of the climate system is when the debit and credit sides in the Earth’s global annual mean energy budget (including the air and water envelopes) are almost always unbalanced. The annual mean balance of the heat budget of the Earth–atmosphere over a long time period will reliably define the behavior and magnitude of the energy excess accumulated by the Earth or energy deficit to allow us to determine adequately and to predict beforehand the trend and amplitude of the forthcoming climate change using the prognosis of variations in the total solar irradiance (solar constant). The decrease in solar constant has been observed since the early 1990s. The Earth as a planet will have a negative balance in the energy budget in the future as well, because the Sun is entering the decline phase of the bicentennial luminosity changes. This will lead to a drop in temperature in approximately 2014. The increase in albedo and decrease in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere will result in the additional decrease in absorbed portion of the solar energy and reduced greenhouse effect. The additional drop in temperature exceeding the effect of decreased solar constant can occur as a result of successive feedback effects. A deep bicentennial minimum in solar constant is to be anticipated in 2042 ± 11 and the 19th Little Ice Age (for the last 7500 years) may occur in 2055 ± 11.

Human-induced climatic changes are negligible…..

L. F. Khilyuk, G. V. Chilingar. On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved? Environmental Geology (2006) 50: 899–910. DOI 10.1007/s00254-006-0261-x

The authors identify and describe the following global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate: (1) solar radiation as a dominant external energy supplier to the Earth, (2) outgassing as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere, and, possibly, (3) microbial activities generating and consuming atmospheric gases at the interface of lithosphere and atmosphere. The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their corresponding effects on the Earth’s climate. Quantitative comparison of the scope and extent of the forces of nature and anthropogenic influences on the Earth’s climate is especially important at the time of broad-scale public debates on current global warming. The writers show that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible.

Antarctic ice mass is increasing….

Matt A. King, Rory J. Bingham, Phil Moore, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Michael J. Bentley, Glenn A. Milne Lower satellite-gravimetry estimates of Antarctic sea-level contribution, Nature, Volume:491, Pages:586–589. doi:10.1038/nature11621

Recent estimates of Antarctica’s present-day rate of ice-mass contribution to changes in sea level range from 31 gigatonnes a year (Gt yr−1) to 246 Gt yr−1, a range that cannot be reconciled within formal errors. Time-varying rates of mass loss contribute to this, but substantial technique-specific systematic errors also exist. In particular, estimates of secular ice-mass change derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data are dominated by significant uncertainty in the accuracy of models of mass change due to glacial isostatic adjustment, (GIA). Here we adopt a new model of GIA, developed from geological constraints, which produces GIA rates systematically lower than those of previous models, and an improved fit to independent uplift data. After applying the model to 99 months (from August 2002 to December 2010) of GRACE data, we estimate a continent-wide ice-mass change of −69 ± 18 Gt yr−1 (+0.19 ± 0.05 mm yr−1 sea-level equivalent). This is about a third to a half of the most recently published GRACE estimates, which cover a similar time period but are based on older GIA models. Plausible GIA model uncertainties, and errors relating to removing longitudinal GRACE artefacts (‘destriping’), confine our estimate to the range −126 Gt yr−1 to −29 Gt yr−1 (0.08–0.35 mm yr−1 sea-level equivalent). We resolve 26 independent drainage basins and find that Antarctic mass loss, and its acceleration, is concentrated in basins along the Amundsen Sea coast. Outside this region, we find that West Antarctica is nearly in balance and that East Antarctica is gaining substantial mass.

Click here for full paper (fee).