Daily Archives: June 13, 2013

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Is 0.6 ft per 100 years sea level rise something to be concerned about?

8454000 providence sea level
NOAA: The mean sea level trend is 1.95 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.28 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1938 to 2006 which is equivalent to a change of 0.64 feet in 100 years.

Atmospheric “hotspot” does not exist (but we knew that….)

The core assumption in climate models of an anthropogenic “hotspot” is in error…..

Costas A. Varotsos, Maria N. Efstathiou, Arthur P. Cracknell. Plausible reasons for the inconsistencies between the modelled and observed temperatures in the tropical troposphere. Geophysical Research Letters DOI: 10.1002/grl.50646

We herewith attempt to detect plausible reasons for the discrepancies between the measured and modeled tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. For this purpose, we calculate the trends of the upper-minus-lower tropospheric temperature anomaly differences (TAD) for both the measured and modeled time series during 1979-2010. The modeled TAD trend is significantly higher than that of the measured ones, confirming that the vertical amplification of warming is exaggerated in models. To investigate the cause of this exaggeration, we compare the intrinsic properties of the measured and modelled TAD by employing detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The DFA-exponent obtained for the measured values reveals white noise behaviour, while the exponent for the modelled ones shows that they exhibit long-range power law correlations. We suggest that the vertical amplification of warming derived from modelled simulations is weighted with a persistent signal, which should be removed in order to achieve better agreement with observations.

Click here for full paper (fee).