Monthly Archives: July 2013

Changes in solar activity and ocean oscillations result in warming pause?

Syun-Ichi Akasofu. On the Present Halting of Global Warming Climate, 2013, 1(1), 4-11; doi:10.3390/cli1010004

The rise in global average temperature over the last century has halted since roughly the year 2000, despite the fact that the release of CO2 into the atmosphere is still increasing. It is suggested here that this interruption has been caused by the suspension of the near linear (+ 0.5 °C/100 years or 0.05 °C/10 years) temperature increase over the last two centuries, due to recovery from the Little Ice Age, by a superposed multi-decadal oscillation of a 0.2 °C amplitude and a 50~60 year period, which reached its positive peak in about the year 2000—a halting similar to those that occurred around 1880 and 1940. Because both the near linear change and the multi-decadal oscillation are likely to be natural changes (the recovery from the Little Ice Age (LIA) and an oscillation related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively), they must be carefully subtracted from temperature data before estimating the effects of CO2.

Click here for full paper (Open Access).

Solar – Planetary models more accurate than CO2 models

Nicola Scafetta. Solar and Planetary Oscillation Control on Climate Change: Hind-Cast, Forecast and a Comparison with the CMIP5 GCMS. Energy and Environment, Volume 24, No. 3 and 4, 2013

Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related to a long millennial solar oscillation and to changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere (e.g. aerosol and greenhouse gases). However, current general circulation climate models, e.g. the CMIP5 GCMs, to be used in the AR5 IPCC Report in 2013, fail to reconstruct the observed climatic oscillations. As an alternate, an empirical model is proposed that uses: (1) a specific set of decadal, multidecadal, secular and millennial astronomic harmonics to simulate the observed climatic oscillations; (2) a 0.45 attenuation of the GCM ensemble mean simulations to model the anthropogenic and volcano forcing effects. The proposed empirical model outperforms the GCMs by better hindcasting the observed 1850-2012 climatic patterns. It is found that: (1) about 50-60% of the warming observed since 1850 and since 1970 was induced by natural oscillations likely resulting from harmonic astronomical forcings that are not yet included in the GCMs; (2) a 2000-2040 approximately steady projected temperature; (3) a 2000-2100 projected warming ranging between 0.3 oC and 1.6 oC , which is significantly lower than the IPCC GCM ensemble mean projected warming of 1.1 oC to 4.1 oC ; (4) an equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling centered in 1.35 oC and varying between 0.9 oC and 2.0 oC.

Click here for full paper (Open Source).

Levermann et al sea level rise claims are a “religious” statement, not science-based?

The unstated presuppostions in the alarming sea level claims of this paper are covered over in the eloquence of the narrative. It is just another example of how corrupt the science establishment has become that such a paper can be published and taken as fact without any critical thought. It does not disturb me  that people do these studies, publish them, or believe such things, but to accept this narrative story as the science without recognizing its limits such as in this interview (click here)takes great faith (called scientism), just as much faith as any other religion. It is a religious belief statement about the future couched in scientific and technical terms.

Anders Levermann, Peter U. Clark, Ben Marzeion, Glenn A. Milne, David Pollard, Valentina Radic, and Alexander Robinson. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. July 15, 2013 doi: 10.1073/pnas.1219414110

Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C−1 and 1.2 m °C−1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C−1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

The suggestion that these modellers can make such accurate predictions into the future such as this study is pure fiction. Application of a little common sense will go much further in planning for the future than relying on this study.

On climate, scientists must do their homework…

Scientists and others who do not agree with the standard explanation for changes in climate are said to not take climate change (aka global warming) seriously. (click here) This is false.

Claims about the future such as this are based on unverified climate models which do not correspond to the actual climate system, do not meet even minimum criteria for valid forecasting, and certianly do not overcome the most significant problem of the Humean induction argument. Is this what their claim is based upon?

Let’s take a look at the surface temperature record for the State of Oklahoma, below. I realize the BEST data has its own issues. But if there really was a global warming (aka climate change) problem it would be seen in the data.

Oklahoma Surface Temperatures

Well, it looks like these instructors get a failing grade in their plea to address global warming (aka climate change)….they did not do their homework. It is clear that the weather and climate are always changing. We do not experience an average temperature. What is it about the almost uniform wide band of temperature variations in Oklahoma over the past 200 years that would demand drastic action now? Look at the data, apply some common sense, and judge for yourself. The more the climate changes, the more it stays the same (with small trend changes over time).

Link between solar activity and Arctic ocean climate

Knud Lassen and Peter Thejll. Multi-decadal variation of the East Greenland Sea-Ice Extent: AD 1500-2000. Danish Meteorological Institute. Ministry of Transport. Scientific Report 05-02.

The extent of ice in the North Atlantic varies in time with time scales stretching to centennial, and  the cause of these variations is discussed. We consider the Koch ice index which describes the  amount of ice sighted from Iceland, in the period 1150 to 1983 AD. This measure of ice extent is a  non-linear and curtailed measure of the amount of ice in the Greenland Sea, but gives an overall  view of the amounts of ice there through more than 800 years. The length of the series allows insight  into the natural variability of ice extent and this understanding can be used to evaluate modern-day  variations. Thus we find that the recently reported retreat of the ice in the Greenland Sea may be related to the termination of the so-called Little Ice Age in the early twentieth century. We also look at the approximately 80 year variability of the Koch index and compare it to the similar periodicity found in the solar cycle length, which is a measure of solar activity. A close correlation (R=0.67) of high significance (0.5 % probability of a chance occurrence) is found between the two patterns, suggesting a link from solar activity to the Arctic Ocean climate.

Click here for the full report (Open Source).

A new method for administration of fluoride

Perioli L, Nocchetti M, Giannelli P, Pagano C, Bastianini M. Hydrotalcite composites for an effective fluoride buccal administration: A new technological approach. International Journal of Pharmaceutics. 2013 Jul 11. pii: S0378-5173(13)00590-5. doi: 10.1016/j.ijpharm.2013.06.070.

The aim of this work was to develop new mucoadhesive buccal patches containing an inorganic fluorinated compound, MgAl-F, intended for decay prevention. Firstly MgAl-F was synthesized and characterized, then the patches were prepared starting from a physical blend of mucoadhesive polymers (NaCMC and Polycarbophil) in which MgAl-F was dispersed in different amounts in order to obtain the films. The prepared mucoadhesive patches were characterized in terms of swelling capacity, mucoadhesion force and time, surface morphology and in vitro release studies. Moreover, the organoleptic properties and acceptability have been evaluated by in vivo application. The performed studies demonstrated that the proposed formulations are practical, manageable, flexible and adaptable to the biological substrate showing, at the same time, good organoleptic properties. Moreover, the presence of the MgAl-F is able to decrease the strong adhesion of the employed polymers, reducing pain and irritations resulting in a high patient acceptability. Data obtained from release studies revealed that the application of small patch portions is enough able to release, for a prolonged time, an amount of fluoride ions able to reach the efficacious dose. These observations suggest the applicability of such formulations for buccal administration of different active ingredients.

Click here for full paper (fee).

USEPA Regulatory Agenda: Perchlorate

EPA/WATER RIN: 2040-AF28 Publication ID: Spring 2013

Title: National Primary Drinking Water Regulations: Regulation of Perchlorate

Abstract: The Agency is developing a national regulation for perchlorate in drinking water.The Safe Drinking Water Act describes EPA’s requirements for regulating contaminants. In accordance with these requirements, EPA will consider the Science Advisory Board’s guidance on how to best interpret perchlorate health information to derive a Maximum Contaminant Level Goal for perchlorate. The agency is also evaluating the feasibility and affordability of treatment technologies to remove perchlorate from drinking water and will examine the costs and benefits of a Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) and alternative MCLs. EPA is also seeking input through informal and formal processes from the National Drinking Water Advisory Council, the Department of Health and Human Services, State and tribal drinking water programs, the regulated community (public water systems), public health organizations, academia, environmental and public interest groups, and other interested stakeholders on a number of issues relating to the regulation.

Agency: Environmental Protection Agency(EPA) Priority: Other Significant

RIN Status: Previously published in the Unified Agenda Agenda Stage of Rulemaking: Proposed Rule Stage

Major: No Unfunded Mandates: Undetermined

CFR Citation: 40 CFR 141 and 142

Legal Authority: 42 USC 300f et seq

Legal Deadline: Action Source Description Date

NPRM Statutory SDWA requires NPRM not later than 24 months after determination to regulate. 02/11/2013
Final Statutory SDWA requires Final Action within 18 months of NPRM; may be extended up to 9 months. 08/11/2014

Timetable: Action Date FR Cite
NPRM 12/00/2013
Final Rule 09/00/2015

Additional Information: Docket #:EPA-HQ-OW-2011-03331

Regulatory Flexibility Analysis Required: Undetermined Government Levels Affected: Undetermined
Federalism: Undetermined
Included in the Regulatory Plan: No

RIN Information URL: http://water.epa.gov/drink/contaminants/unregulated/perchlorate.cfm
RIN Data Printed in the FR: No
Agency Contact:

Daniel Olson
Environmental Protection Agency
Water
4607M,
Washington, DC 20460
Phone:202 564-5239
Email: Olson.Daniel@epamail.epa.gov

Eric Burneson
Environmental Protection Agency
Water
4607M,
Washington, DC 20460
Phone:202 564-5250
Email: Burneson.Eric@epamail.epa.gov