“It’s going from worse to worst each week in California.” click here
Everyone is concerned about the on going drought in California……but the water drought is not the most serious problem………the drought of common sense in the California Democrat state government has been going on for much, much longer and may cause further migration out of the state.
The California cap-and-trade program will not be able to solve this problem. And neither will a climate model.
Dr. Mann is certainly entitled to voice his views. But I believe many of the points raised in this viewpoint article have already been shown to be inaccurate. Perhaps he is not aware of this. I would urge everyone to dig a little deeper to check out both sides of these issues before drawing any conclusions. However, I would request clarity in the definition of terms used in any future articles.
“If it’s seemed warm to you of late, you’d be right. It is warm — in southeastern Pennsylvania, throughout the state and around the world.” click here
“They’re getting the fact that this is affecting their communities right now, whether that’s the drought in California, wildfires in the West, sea-level rise and storm surge.” click here
There will always be affects of changing climate. Some changes will be positive and others not so. Adaptation to changing regional conditions will always be necessary. Even the so called “deniers” recognize and support reasonable adaptation efforts in this regard.
What is not needed is a continuation of a politicized IPCC and further wasted government funding of “climate change” programs that cannot solve the problem. Right now ideology and the need for government funding is driving the “climate change” issue in Washington whether it is for defense, spending on climate models, or subsidies for alternative energy companies (remember Solyndra). Alternative energies as well as fossil-based fuels must stand on their own in the market place and should not be tied to “climate change”.
“The IPCC never had a useful or legitimate scientific purpose. It was founded for purely political and not scientific reasons. It was flawed. It has failed. Time to sweep it away. It does not even deserve a place in the history books, except as a warning against the globalization of groupthink, and of government.” click here for full article.
文章导读 考察了太阳活动与地表温度变化在数百年尺度上的周期性和相关性, 发现二者具有显著共振周期和较高相关性, 太阳活动对地表温度变化具有“延迟”和“积累”双重效应.
基于太阳黑子历史数据、太阳总辐照（TSI）重构数据和实测地球表面平均温度数据（全球、陆地、海洋），利用小波分析和交叉相关分析等方法，考察了太阳活动和地表温度变化在数百年时间尺度上的周期性及相关性. 主要结果有：（1） 在所考察的时间范围内，太阳活动（包括黑子和太阳总辐照）存在4个置信度高于95%（白噪声）的主周期变化，分别为11 a周期、50 a周期、世纪周期和双世纪周期，全球温度存在64.3 a的主周期变化，接近太阳活动的50 a周期；（2） 太阳活动与全球温度变化具有22，50 a的显著共振周期；（3） 太阳活动与地表温度长期变化的相关性高于其短期变化的相关性，以黑子为例，它与地表温度年均值的相关系数为0.31~0.35，11 a滑动平均值相关系数为0.58~0.70，22 a滑动平均值相关系数为0.64~0.78，太阳总辐照与地表温度的相关性高于黑子与地表温度的相关性；（4） 太阳活动在近100年里有明显增强，它与全球温度（包括陆地、海洋）近百年的升温是一致的，太阳活动与海洋温度的相关性略高于太阳活动与陆地温度的相关性. 这些结果表明，太阳活动在百年时间尺度上对于地表温度的变化具有不可忽略的影响.
If enough assumptions are made in models just about anything can be linked to anything else. A common unstated bias is assuming a phenomena is anthropogenic. It can certainly be assumed but such an assumption should be clearly state when no evidence is provided to support the claim.
B. D. Hamlington, M. W. Strassburg, R. R. Leben. W. Han, R. S. Nerem, K-Y. Kim. Uncovering an anthropogenic sea-level rise signal in the Pacific Ocean. Nature Climate Change (2014) DOI:doi:10.1038/nclimate2307
Iternal climate variability across a range of scales is known to contribute to regional sea-level trends1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, which can be much larger than the global mean sea-level trend in many parts of the globe. Over decadal timescales, this internal variability obscures the long-term sea-level change3, 6, 8, making it difficult to assess the effect of anthropogenic warming on sea level. Here, an attempt is made to uncover the sea-level rise pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean associated with anthropogenic warming. More specifically, the sea-level variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is estimated and removed from the regional sea-level trends computed from satellite altimetry measurements over the past two decades. The resulting pattern of regional sea-level rise uncovered in the tropical Pacific Ocean is explained in part by warming in the tropical Indian Ocean, which has been attributed to anthropogenic warming9. This study represents one of the first attempts at linking the sea-level trend pattern observed by satellite altimetry to anthropogenic forcing.
Click here for full paper (fee).