Daily Archives: September 26, 2014

The California Drought Simply Reflects the Drought of Sound Thinking in the CA Assembly and Senate

happy-bouncing-smilie

Byd7PyfIYAAg113 drought monitor

HADCRUT global temperature database lacks coverage, inadequate

A letter to the editor published in Nature Climate Change (here) points out a serious deficiency of global temperature data. Temperatures are measured only at particular monitoring points. Vastly large areas of the globe have limited or no historical measurements whatsoever. As a result, existing databases (e.g. HADCRUT) are inadequate for use in climate models that attempt to draw conclusions on a global scale about the present (e.g. “It’s a lot warmer today than 100 years ago so it must be CO2.”) as well as being inadequate to draw conclusions about the future (e.g. “If we project the past trend into the future then the earth will warm dramatically and we are in big trouble.”). Such statements are simply unjustified given the quality of the data regardless of the climate model. (As the saying goes, “Garbage in, Garbage out).

In other words, a climate model is irrelevant and misleading if the underlying data being modeled is inadequate or deficient. This should not be a surprise to any scientist and has been known for decades. It’s one of those “inconvenient truths” that climate modelers do not want to talk about. 

Marc Macias-Fauria, Alistair W. R. Seddon, David Benz, Peter R. Long, Kathy Willis. Spatiotemporal patterns of warming. Nature Climate Change, 4, (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2372

Ji et al present a methodology to analyse global (excluding Antarctica) spatiotemporal patterns of temperature change, using mean monthly temperatures obtained from the updated Climate Research Unit (CRU) high-resolution gridded climate database. Their analysis fails to take into account several key characteristics of the CRU database, seriously compromising the conclusions regarding the spatiotemporal patterns of global warming during the twentieth century.”

Click here for excerpts from this letter at the HockeySchtick.

Solar Cycles Explain Complex Features of Changes in Climate

Hiroko Miyahara, Yusuke Yokoyama, and Yasuhiko T. Yamaguchi. Influence of solar cycles on climate change during the Maunder Minimum. Solar and Stellar Variability: Impact on Earth and Planets. Proceedings IUA Symposium No. 264, 2009.

We have examined the variation of carbon-14 content in annual tree rings, and investigated the transitions of the characteristics of the Schwabe/Hale (11-year/22-year) solar and cosmic-ray cycles during the last 1200 years, focusing mainly on the Maunder and Spoerer minima and the early Medieval Maximum Period. It has been revealed that the mean length of the Schwabe/Hale cycles changes associated with the centennial-scale variation of solar activity level. The mean length of Schwabe cycle had been ∼14 years during the Maunder Minimum, while it was ∼9 years during the early Medieval Maximum Period. We have also found that climate proxy record shows cyclic variations similar to stretching/shortening Schwabe/Hale solar cycles in time, suggesting that both Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are playing important role in climate change. In this paper, we review the nature of Schwabe and Hale cycles of solar activity and cosmic-ray flux during the Maunder Minimum and their possible influence on climate change. We suggest that the Hale cycle of cosmic rays are amplified during the grand solar minima and thus the influence of cosmic rays on climate change is prominently recognizable during such periods.

Click here for full paper (Open Source).