Monthly Archives: September 2014

The California Drought Simply Reflects the Drought of Sound Thinking in the CA Assembly and Senate

happy-bouncing-smilie

Byd7PyfIYAAg113 drought monitor

HADCRUT global temperature database lacks coverage, inadequate

A letter to the editor published in Nature Climate Change (here) points out a serious deficiency of global temperature data. Temperatures are measured only at particular monitoring points. Vastly large areas of the globe have limited or no historical measurements whatsoever. As a result, existing databases (e.g. HADCRUT) are inadequate for use in climate models that attempt to draw conclusions on a global scale about the present (e.g. “It’s a lot warmer today than 100 years ago so it must be CO2.”) as well as being inadequate to draw conclusions about the future (e.g. “If we project the past trend into the future then the earth will warm dramatically and we are in big trouble.”). Such statements are simply unjustified given the quality of the data regardless of the climate model. (As the saying goes, “Garbage in, Garbage out).

In other words, a climate model is irrelevant and misleading if the underlying data being modeled is inadequate or deficient. This should not be a surprise to any scientist and has been known for decades. It’s one of those “inconvenient truths” that climate modelers do not want to talk about. 

Marc Macias-Fauria, Alistair W. R. Seddon, David Benz, Peter R. Long, Kathy Willis. Spatiotemporal patterns of warming. Nature Climate Change, 4, (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2372

Ji et al present a methodology to analyse global (excluding Antarctica) spatiotemporal patterns of temperature change, using mean monthly temperatures obtained from the updated Climate Research Unit (CRU) high-resolution gridded climate database. Their analysis fails to take into account several key characteristics of the CRU database, seriously compromising the conclusions regarding the spatiotemporal patterns of global warming during the twentieth century.”

Click here for excerpts from this letter at the HockeySchtick.

Solar Cycles Explain Complex Features of Changes in Climate

Hiroko Miyahara, Yusuke Yokoyama, and Yasuhiko T. Yamaguchi. Influence of solar cycles on climate change during the Maunder Minimum. Solar and Stellar Variability: Impact on Earth and Planets. Proceedings IUA Symposium No. 264, 2009.

We have examined the variation of carbon-14 content in annual tree rings, and investigated the transitions of the characteristics of the Schwabe/Hale (11-year/22-year) solar and cosmic-ray cycles during the last 1200 years, focusing mainly on the Maunder and Spoerer minima and the early Medieval Maximum Period. It has been revealed that the mean length of the Schwabe/Hale cycles changes associated with the centennial-scale variation of solar activity level. The mean length of Schwabe cycle had been ∼14 years during the Maunder Minimum, while it was ∼9 years during the early Medieval Maximum Period. We have also found that climate proxy record shows cyclic variations similar to stretching/shortening Schwabe/Hale solar cycles in time, suggesting that both Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are playing important role in climate change. In this paper, we review the nature of Schwabe and Hale cycles of solar activity and cosmic-ray flux during the Maunder Minimum and their possible influence on climate change. We suggest that the Hale cycle of cosmic rays are amplified during the grand solar minima and thus the influence of cosmic rays on climate change is prominently recognizable during such periods.

Click here for full paper (Open Source).

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Not the Cause of Warming the US West Coast

James A. Johnstone and Nathan J. Mantua. Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900–2012. PNAS doi: 10.1073/pnas.1318371111

Over the last century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ∼0.5–1 °C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST, and SAT, this study investigates northeast (NE) Pacific coupled atmosphere–ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with the strongest trends observed from 1910–1920 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900–2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon, and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural internally generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012 and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.

Click here for full paper (fee).

Israel Officially Bans Addition of Fluoride to Drinking Water, Other Countries Should Follow

“On Tuesday of this week (Aug. 26), Israel officially stopped adding fluoride to its water supplies. The decision has “been lauded by various rights groups, but criticized by many in the medical and dental communities as a serious mistake,” as the Times of Israel put it.” click here

The so called “medical” and “dental” groups should stop complaining and get on with the task of actually doing something positive to affect dental health rather then hide behind the facade that communal fluoridation will take of the problem.

Performance Evaluation of a Parabolic Solar Still

Shiva Gorjian, Barat Ghobadian, Teymour Tavakkoli Hashjin, Ahmad Banakar. Experimental performance evaluation of a stand-alone point-focus parabolic solar still. Desalination Volume 352, 3 November 2014, Pages 1–17

A stand-alone point-focus parabolic solar still (PPSS) was designed and fabricated for desalination of seawater or brackish water and purification of non-potable water. The system consists of a parabolic dish concentrator; a two axis sun tracker based on programmable logic controllers (PLCs) and two plate heat exchangers (PHEs) to preheat the salt water before entering the absorber located at the focal point as well as condense the generating steam. Distillate productivity of the PPSS was measured along with evaluation of the effects of environmental and operational parameters that includes: beam solar insolation, wind speed, air temperature, absorber wall temperature and raw water salinity under the climatic conditions of Tehran during October. The maximum productivity of 5.12 kg within 7 h in a day was measured with the maximum average solar insolation of 626.8 W/m2 and the absorber wall temperature of 150.7 °C. However, no significant effect of air temperature, wind speed, and water salinity on the productivity was observed. The maximum daily efficiency of 36.7% was calculated with a maximum hourly output of 1.5 kg/h. The quality of lab-prepared salt water samples was analyzed before and after desalination and the results comply with the WHO guidelines for drinking water quality.

Click here for full paper (fee).

Lake Turnover Causes Severe Taste and Odor Problems

“As hot days become cool nights in the Fall, water from the bottom of Lake Thunderbird rises to the top. It’s a process called “turning over,” now several Norman-ites are turning away from H20.st tastes terrible when this happens. But believe it or not the can still be safe to drink.” click here