Kelly PNAS “Human-Caused Climate Change Leads to War in Syria” Study Not Significant

Even if we assume the analysis of “climate change” and the war in Syria presented by Kelly et al (here), the authors claim the upward trend is “marginally significant (P < 0.14)”. Quite to the contrary, a 1 in 7 probability that chance produced the results does not rise to the level of statistical credibility. In short, the analysis presented does not support the claims being made. The study authors should have known better.

Further, it is impossible for climate and changes in climate to not have at least some role (major or minor) in armed conflicts worldwide.


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