Daily Archives: January 27, 2016

Mann et al 2016 Time Series Analysis Flawed?

Two views on the paper by Mann et al 2016, The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth, published in Nature.

The author’s view here which is the original paper.

And a statistician’s view here:

“I am anxious people understand that Mann’s errors are in no way unique or rare; indeed, they are banal and ubiquitous. I therefore hope this article serves as a primer in how not to analyze time series.”

In one sense Mr. Briggs has indirectly (but correctly) raised a problem which I have mentioned many times in the past on this blog, the problem of induction. More simply put, can we assume that the future will be like the past? The answer? No. (No less than Philosophers David Hume and Bertrand Russell made note of this fact decades ago.)