Decision Analysis of Global Warming and Human Activity

A very interesting post using a classic decision analysis approach to the problem.

“Our model shows that it does not matter whether human activity is actually the primary cause of global warming (90% probability). The currently advocated global environmental policies exemplified by the Kyoto Protocol, Cap and Trade laws, and the recently negotiated Paris climate agreement assume a deterministic relationship between global warming and anthropogenic CO2 forcing that operates in both directions. In other words, if humans caused it by their activity, they can “un-cause” it by reducing or ceasing that activity. This may not be the case. Our modeling effort suggests that we must be at least 55% certain that reducing human activity will cause a corresponding reduction in global warming before we even consider the current regulatory policies advocated by the environmental movement.” click here for  post at WUWT

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