Daily Archives: February 26, 2017

Global lukewarming

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“When it comes to global warming, most people think there are two camps: “alarmist” or “denier” being their respective pejoratives. Either you acknowledge the existence of man-made climate change and consider it a dire global threat, or you deny it exists at all. But there is a third group: the “lukewarmers.” In Lukewarming: The New Climate Science that Changes Everything, Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenberger explain the real science and spin behind the headlines and come to a provocative conclusion: global warming is not hot—it’s lukewarm. Climate change is real, it is partially man-made, but it is clearer than ever that its impact has been exaggerated—with many of the headline-grabbing predictions now being rendered implausible or impossible.” click here

Climate models for the layman

From the Executive Summary (here):

There is considerable debate over the fidelity and utility of global climate models (GCMs). This debate occurs within the community of climate scientists, who disagree about the amount of weight to give to climate models relative to observational analyses. GCM outputs are also used by economists, regulatory agencies and policy makers, so GCMs have received considerable scrutiny from a broader community of scientists, engineers, software experts, and philosophers of science. This report attempts to describe the debate surrounding GCMs to an educated but nontechnical audience.

Key summary points

• GCMs have not been subject to the rigorous verification and validation that is the norm for engineering and regulatory science.

• There are valid concerns about a fundamental lack of predictability in the complex nonlinear climate system.

• There are numerous arguments supporting the conclusion that climate models are not fit for the purpose of identifying with high confidence the proportion of the 20th century warming that was human-caused as opposed to natural.

• There is growing evidence that climate models predict too much warming from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.

• The climate model simulation results for the 21st century reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) do not include key elements of climate variability, and hence are not useful as projections for how the 21st century climate will actually evolve.

Climate models are useful tools for conducting scientific research to understand the climate system. However, the above points support the conclusion that current GCMs are not fit for the purpose of attributing the causes of 20th century warming or for predicting global or regional climate change on timescales of decades to centuries, with any high level of confidence. By extension, GCMs are not fit for the purpose of justifying political policies to fundamentally alter world social, economic and energy systems. It is this application of climate model results that fuels the vociferousness of the debate surrounding climate models.

Coffee consumption found to be safe

Chrysant SG The impact of coffee consumption on blood pressure, cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. Expert review of cardiovascular therapy. 2017 Feb 3:1-6. doi: 10.1080/14779072.2017.1287563.

Introduction: Coffee is the most widely consumed beverage, next to water. However, there has been a long-standing controversy regarding its safety on blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and intuitively, physicians dissuaded their patients from coffee drinking.

Areas covered: This controversy was, primarily, based on older prospective studies or case reports, which showed a positive association of coffee drinking with the incidence of hypertension and CVD. In contrast to these reports, recent, well controlled, studies have demonstrated either a neutral or beneficial effect of moderate coffee consumption (3-4 cups/day), on BP, CVD, heart failure (HF), cardiac arrhythmias, or diabetes mellitus (DM). For the preparation of this special report, an English language focused search of the Medline database was conducted between 2010 and 2016 on studies with data on effect on the coffee consumption in patients with high BP, CVD, HF, cardiac arrhythmias or DM. Of the 94 abstracts reviewed, 34 pertinent papers were selected, and the findings from these papers together with collateral literature will be discussed in this special report.

Expert commentary: Based on the evidence from these studies, coffee consumption in moderation, is safe and is beneficial in both healthy persons as well as patients with high BP, CVD, HF, cardiac arrhythmias or DM. Therefore, coffee restriction is not warranted for these patients, although some caution should be exercised.