Validation Need for QSAR DBP Toxicity Models

Qin L, Zhang X, Chen Y, Mo L, Zeng H, Liang Y. Predictive QSAR Models for the Toxicity of Disinfection Byproducts. Molecules 2017 Oct 9;22(10). pii: E1671. doi: 10.3390/molecules22101671

Several hundred disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in drinking water have been identified, and are known to have potentially adverse health effects. There are toxicological data gaps for most DBPs, and the predictive method may provide an effective way to address this. The development of an in-silico model of toxicology endpoints of DBPs is rarely studied. The main aim of the present study is to develop predictive quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for the reactive toxicities of 50 DBPs in the five bioassays of X-Microtox, GSH+, GSH-, DNA+ and DNA-. All-subset regression was used to select the optimal descriptors, and multiple linear-regression models were built. The developed QSAR models for five endpoints satisfied the internal and external validation criteria: coefficient of determination (R²) > 0.7, explained variance in leave-one-out prediction (Q²LOO) and in leave-many-out prediction (Q²LMO) > 0.6, variance explained in external prediction (Q²F1Q²F2, and Q²F3) > 0.7, and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) > 0.85. The application domains and the meaning of the selective descriptors for the QSAR models were discussed. The obtained QSAR models can be used in predicting the toxicities of the 50 DBPs.

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