A thoughtful response to the recent Cox et al here on climate sensitivity.
“They seem to overlook one very important thing. In their method, they look at “variations in yearly global temperatures”. They are assuming that the envelope created by the variations will reveal an underlying trend, and from that, a measure of climate sensitivity by comparing it to model output. Their analogy in the press release, using a weighted spring reveals their thinking as believing Earths climate as being a “constrained system”.
Earth’s climate does have some constraints, but it also has chaos, and the chaotic nature of the myriad of forces in Earth’s atmosphere is often pushed beyond what is considered a normal for such constraints. Chaos itself becomes a “forcing”. It is why we get occasional extremes of weather and climate. Edward Lorentz was the first to describe the chaotic nature of the atmosphere with his “butterfly effect” paper in 1972. “ click here