Nov 2017: 0.36 C
Nov 2017: 0.36 C
“This is an important new paper by a team of blue-chip authors. It reveals much about modern science, and shows one reason the campaign for policy action to fight climate change has produced so little despite so much invested over the past three decades. It defies standard analysis, so I will take you on a page by page tour. Each page makes a new low! You can draw your own conclusions.” click here
“Former President Barack Obama said he couldn’t have a debate with someone who thinks man-made global warming is a hoax while speaking at a summit in India on Friday.” click here
Consider this plot of New Dehli surface temperatures. Yup, climates change. The changes are cyclical. The central trend line is actually slightly negative.
“EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt’s proposal for red/blue team assessment is a logical progression from the workshop. The hostile reaction it elicited from leading consensus advocates strongly suggests that they fear debate. Climate scientists whose mission is to advance scientific understanding have nothing to fear and much to gain. Those who seek to use climate science as a policy battering ram have good reason to feel uncomfortable at the prospect. The biggest winner from a red/blue team assessment will be the public. If people are to buy into policies that will drastically alter their way of life, they should be fully informed of the consequences and justifications. To do otherwise would represent a subversion of democracy.” click here
John R. Christy and Richard T. McNider. Satellite Bulk Tropospheric Temperatures as a Metric for Climate Sensitivity. Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 53(4), 511-518, 2017 DOI:10.1007/s13143-017-0070-z
We identify and remove the main natural perturbations (e.g. volcanic activity, ENSOs) from the global mean lower tropospheric temperatures (T ) over January 1979 – June 2017 to estimate the underlying, potentially human-forced trend. The unaltered value is +0.155 K dec while the adjusted trend is +0.096 K dec , related primarily to the removal of volcanic cooling in the early part of the record. This is essentially the same value we determined in 1994 (+0.09 K dec , Christy and McNider, 1994) using only 15 years of data. If the warming rate of +0.096 K dec represents the net T response to increasing greenhouse radiative forcings, this implies that the T tropospheric transient climate response (ΔT at the time CO doubles) is +1.10 ± 0.26 K which is about half of the average of the IPCC AR5 climate models of 2.31 ± 0.20 K. Assuming that the net remaining unknown internal and external natural forcing over this period is near zero, the mismatch since 1979 between observations and CMIP-5 model values suggests that excessive sensitivity to enhanced radiative forcing in the models can be appreciable. The tropical region is mainly responsible for this discrepancy suggesting processes that are the likely sources of the extra sensitivity are (a) the parameterized hydrology of the deep atmosphere, (b) the parameterized heat-partitioning at the ocean- atmosphere interface and/or (c) unknown natural variations.
“Christy and UAH’s Dr. Richard McNider created a new index: the Tropospheric Transient Climate Response, which is based on the bulk atmosphere. That is a more representative quantity for any impact of increased greenhouse gases.” click here