Category Archives: Climate

An example of climate malpractice – creating a hockey stick out of nothing

“The latest version of NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology network (GHCN) has an even more impressive hockey stick than prior versions, showing more than 1.6C warming – with a spectacular post 1970 hockey stick.” click here

IPCC climate sensitivity overestimated

Antero Ollila. Challenging the Greenhouse Effect Specification and the Climate Sensitivity of the IPCC. Physical Science International Journal,
2019 – Volume 22 [Issue 2]. https://doi.org/10.9734/psij/2019/v22i230127

The greenhouse effect concept has been developed to explain the Earth’s elevated temperature. The prevailing theory of climate change is the anthropogenic global warming theory, which assumes that the greenhouse (GH) effect is due to the longwave (LW) absorption of 155.6 Wm-2 by GH gases and clouds. The actual warming increase to 33°C of the Earth’s surface temperature according to the present GH effect definition is the infrared downward LW radiation of 345.6 Wm-2 emitted by the atmosphere. The atmosphere’s temperature is the key element behind this radiation. According to the energy laws, it is not possible that the LW absorption of 155.6 Wm-2 by the GH gases could re-emit downward LW radiation of 345.6 Wm-2 on the Earth’s surface. In this study, the GH effect is 294.5 Wm-2, including shortwave radiation absorption by the atmosphere and the latent and sensible heating effect. This greater GH effect is a prerequisite for the present atmospheric temperature, which provides downward radiation on the surface. Clouds’ net effect is 1% based on the empirical observations. The contribution of CO2 in the GH effect is 7.3% corresponding to 2.4°C in temperature. The reproduction of CO2 radiative forcing (RF) showed the climate sensitivity RF value to be 2.16 Wm-2, which is 41.6% smaller than the 3.7 Wm-2 used by the IPCC. A climate model showing a climate sensitivity (CS) of 0.6°C matches the CO2 contribution in the GH effect, but the IPCC’s climate model showing a CS of 1.8°C or 1.2°C does not.

Everyone other than the “climate scientists” who depend on government funding seems to know there is no climate crisis.

“In other words, another long-running US poll tells us the public’s climate concerns are weak. Ask people if they care about it, and many will say ‘yes.’ But they feel more urgency about a long list of other issues.” click here

Climate debate should be about science and economics

“Last year was the year the climate issue took a sharp turn towards extremism. Let’s hope 2020 is the year sanity makes a comeback.” click here

Spread of Malaria not related to climate variability, Bangladesh

Haque U, Hashizume M, Glass GE, Dewan AM, Overgaard HJ, Yamamoto T (2010) The Role of Climate Variability in the Spread of Malaria in Bangladeshi Highlands. PLoS ONE 5(12): e14341. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0014341

” Background
Malaria is a major public health problem in Bangladesh, frequently occurring as epidemics since the 1990s. Many factors affect increases in malaria cases, including changes in land use, drug resistance, malaria control programs, socioeconomic issues, and climatic factors. No study has examined the relationship between malaria epidemics and climatic factors in Bangladesh. Here, we investigate the relationship between climatic parameters [rainfall, temperature, humidity, sea surface temperature (SST), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)], and malaria cases over the last 20 years in the malaria endemic district of Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT).

Methods and Principal Findings
Monthly malaria case data from January 1989 to December 2008, monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal and ENSO index at the Niño Region 3 (NIÑO3) were used. A generalized linear negative binomial regression model was developed using the number of monthly malaria cases and each of the climatic parameters. After adjusting for potential mutual confounding between climatic factors there was no evidence for any association between the number of malaria cases and temperature, rainfall and humidity. Only a low NDVI was associated with an increase in the number of malaria cases. There was no evidence of an association between malaria cases and SST in the Bay of Bengal and NIÑO3.

Conclusion and Significance
It seems counterintuitive that a low NDVI, an indicator of low vegetation greenness, is associated with increases in malaria cases, since the primary vectors in Bangladesh, such as An. dirus, are associated with forests. This relationship can be explained by the drying up of rivers and streams creating suitable breeding sites for the vector fauna. Bangladesh has very high vector species diversity and vectors suited to these habitats may be responsible for the observed results.”

News reports about Arctic Ice are not based on reality…

Water vapor is earth’s thermostat

Ivan R. Kennedy, Migdat Hodzic. Testing the hypothesis that variations in atmospheric water vapour are the main cause of fluctuations in global temperature, Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Vol. 7, No. 2, August 2019, pp.870-880.

A hypothesis that the increasing application of both surface and ground water for irrigation of crops is a significant source of anthropogenic global warming is tested. In climate models, water is already assigned a major secondary amplifying role in warming, solely as a positive feedback from an atmosphere previously warmed by other GHGs. However, this conclusion ignores the direct anthropogenic forcing from increasing use of water in dry regions to grow crops for the human population. The area irrigated worldwide increased by around 1.5% annually between 1960 and 2000, almost trebling in magnitude. Importantly, though only a small proportion of the Earth’s surface, this additional water vapour is dynamically focussed on dry land, intensifying its potential to elevate the troposphere and reduce the regional OLR. Our modelling analysis suggests that the increase in atmospheric water vapour from irrigation could be significantly more than 1% by 2050 compared to 1950, imposing a global forcing
than 1% by 2050. Fortunately, this hypothesis can be tested, for example, using the satellite data on OLR acquired since the 1970s, relating this to local trends of increasing irrigation or major floods in arid regions. If found consistent with the data, current proposals to mitigate climate change by limiting combustion of fossil fuels may prove less effective. This prediction regarding the warming effect of increasing irrigation is tested using NCAR reanalysis data made possible by the natural experiments of the periodic flooding of Lake Eyre in Australia’s semi-arid interior. It is recommended that this hypothesis be tested using data from local studies in irrigated regions such as changes in outgoing longwave radiation and in increased absorption of incoming shortwave radiation in air.