Category Archives: extreme weather

Strong hurricanes not related to atmospheric CO2

“Will the intensity of hurricanes increase with climate change? Can this be detected today, as Levermann concludes so trivially? This is not the case, say researchers around Lory Trenary from George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. They investigated climate models and re-analyses and found no connection with the drive by greenhouse gases, especially CO2.” click here

Extreme weather intensification not linked to rising CO2 emissions

“As a continuation of the IPCC’s observation (2013) that there has been no detectable trend in storm and cyclone intensification (or extreme weather in general) that can be clearly linked to rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions, a new paper documents the rapid decline in eddy kinetic (EKE) and mean available potential energy (MAPE) since the late 1970s. This undermines the popularized claims that human activity worsens extreme weather events.” click here

Extreme cold not related to “Climate change”

“Numerous media outlets cited last week’s polar vortex as an example of extreme weather caused by climate change, but it turns out such cold snaps are actually on the decline.” click here

“Climate change” is so slow it is hardly noticeable

If climate is defined as average weather over a 30 year period (i.e. WMO definition), then it would take several decades to see any true change show up given the wide variability experienced year to year. To illustrate, consider this plot of 100 years of maximum surface temperature data at Fire Station #3, Riverside, California.

Figure 8 top

Did the climate change? Well, yes it changes every day, month, year and decade, in this case with temperature swings within a wide band of variability.

But was there a permanent change based on 30-year averages? Perhaps so, but would it be noticed? It’s refreshing to see scientists (such as here) now starting to point out the long-term nature of changing climates.

The Clinton Administration White House held a summit on climate change in the early 90’s looking at a wide range of issues. With regard to water supplies, Denver Water Department Executive Director Hamlet J. Barry III (better known as ‘Chips Barry’) attended this meeting and argued quit correctly that a true change in climate happens over many decades which is slow enough for water utilities to adjust to any changes. I suspect the same would be the case for cities and towns as well. In reality action is already being taken to respond to slow changes in climate.

A greater need is to develop resilience to extreme weather events, which can happen at any time, and are unrelated to “climate change”.

 

Renewable energy fails to produce during extreme cold and snow

“The brutal cold wave that just struck America provides a stark example of why 100% renewables cannot possibly work. Once the massive high pressure system was in place there was almost no wind, so no significant wind power. And the coldest temperatures by far were at night or early morning, when there was no solar power either.” click here

No climate trend in hurricane damage losses

Jessica Weinkle, Chris Landsea, Douglas Collins, Rade Musulin, Ryan P. Crompton, Philip J. Klotzbach, Roger Pielke Jr. Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017. Nature Sustainability (2018)

Direct economic losses result when a hurricane encounters an exposed, vulnerable society. A normalization estimates direct economic losses from a historical extreme event if that same event was to occur under contemporary societal conditions. Under the global indicator framework of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the reduction of direct economic losses as a proportion of total economic activity is identified as a key indicator of progress in the mitigation of disaster impacts. Understanding loss trends in the context of development can therefore aid in assessing sustainable development. This analysis provides a major update to the leading dataset on normalized US hurricane losses in the continental United States from 1900 to 2017. Over this period, 197 hurricanes resulted in 206 landfalls with about US$2 trillion in normalized (2018) damage, or just under US$17 billion annually. Consistent with observed trends in the frequency and intensity of hurricane landfalls along the continental United States since 1900, the updated normalized loss estimates also show no trend. A more detailed comparison of trends in hurricanes and normalized losses over various periods in the twentieth century to 2017 demonstrates a very high degree of consistency.

US temperature extremes have become more moderate

“Chapter 6 – Temperature Changes in the United States of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s recently published Climate Science Special Report (2017) clearly shows and discusses, under the heading of “6.1.2 Temperature Extremes”, how temperature extremes for the contiguous United States have become more moderate over the last 118 years, with the coldest daily temperatures warming and the warmest daily temperatures cooling. In other words, temperature-extreme-related climate in the United States has improved.” click here