Category Archives: Uncategorized

Average global temperature is declining

“The World Meteorological Organisation is misleading the public by suggesting that global warming and its impacts are accelerating. In fact, since 2016 global average temperature has continued to decline.” click here

Urban heat island effect significantly increased UK temperatures

“This paper finds through the method of observation minus reanalysis that urbanisation has significantly increased the daily minimum 2‐m temperature in the United Kingdom by up to 1.70 K.” click here

Palo Alto, CA sea-level rise fears are not science-based

“One minor problem with the experts claim though, is that it has no basis in science or reality. Had these experts done any actual research, they would have known that sea level in the San Francisco Bay is almost exactly the same as it was in 1940.” click here

Sea surface temperature drives global climate

Andrea J. Dittus et al. Understanding the role of sea surface temperature-forcing for variability in global temperature and precipitation extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes Volume 21, September 2018, Pages 1-9.

The oceans are a well-known source of natural variability in the climate system, although their ability to account for inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation extremes over land remains unclear. In this study, the role of sea-surface temperature (SST)-forcing is investigated for variability and trends in a range of commonly used temperature and precipitation extreme indices over the period 1959 to 2013. Using atmospheric simulations forced by observed SST and sea-ice concentrations (SIC) from three models participating in the Climate of the Twentieth Century Plus (C20C+) Project, results show that oceanic boundary conditions drive a substantial fraction of inter-annual variability in global average temperature extreme indices, as well as, to a lower extent, for precipitation extremes. The observed trends in temperature extremes are generally well captured by the SST-forced simulations although some regional features such as the lack of warming in daytime warm temperature extremes over South America are not reproduced in the model simulations. Furthermore, the models simulate too strong increases in warm day frequency compared to observations over North America. For extreme precipitation trends, the accuracy of the simulated trend pattern is regionally variable, and a thorough assessment is difficult due to the lack of locally significant trends in the observations. This study shows that prescribing SST and SIC holds potential predictability for extremes in some (mainly tropical) regions at the inter-annual time-scale.

What we can learn from 40 years of satellite temperature measurements

“What the graph shows is the departure from the average for the 30 years from 1981 to 2010. The last data point is February 2019 with a result of -0.03 degrees C. So we have had 40 years of global warming and the temperature has remained flat. In fact it is slightly cooler than the long term average. Is it possible to believe in global warming when the atmosphere has cooled? No, not rationally. Is it possible for global warming to be real if the atmosphere has cooled? Again no.” click here

Facebook ad algorithm out of control

“Facebook’s advertisement targeting system can’t help but discriminate, according to a report, which claimed it discriminates by race and gender even when told not to.” click here

Meta-analyses are very squishy when something is made up out of nothing

S. Stanley Young and Warren B. Kindzierski. Evaluation of a meta-analysis of air quality and heart attacks, a case studyCritical Reviews in Toxicology  https://doi.org/10.1080/10408444.2019.1576587

It is generally acknowledged that claims from observational studies often fail to replicate. An exploratory study was undertaken to assess the reliability of base studies used in meta-analysis of short-term air quality-myocardial infarction risk and to judge the reliability of statistical evidence from meta-analysis that uses data from observational studies. A highly cited meta-analysis paper examining whether short-term air quality exposure triggers myocardial infarction was evaluated as a case study. The paper considered six air quality components – carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, particulate matter 10 lm and 2.5 lm in diameter (PM10 and PM2.5), and ozone. The number of possible questions and statistical models at issue in each of 34 base papers used were estimated and p-value plots for each of the air components were constructed to evaluate the effect heterogeneity of p-values used from the base papers. Analysis search spaces (number of statistical tests possible) in the base papers were large, median 1⁄4 12,288 (interquartile range 1⁄4 2496 ” 58,368), in comparison to actual statistical test results presented. Statistical test results taken from the base papers may not provide unbiased measures of effect for meta-analysis. Shapes of p-value plots for the six air components were consistent with the possibility of analysis manipulation to obtain small p-values in several base papers. Results suggest the appearance of heterogeneous, researcher-generated p-values used in the meta-analysis rather than unbiased evidence of real effects for air quality. We conclude that this meta-analysis does not provide reliable evidence for an association of air quality components with myocardial risk.