Tag Archives: climate science

Polar Bears are Doing Just Fine, Thank You.

“The overwhelming conclusion from years of accumulated conversations with native populations about polar bears is that there is almost no connection between the long-term observations of polar bear ecology and the more recent claims that polar bears as a species are in grave danger due to climate change and thinning sea ice.

In fact, the long-term observations suggest that polar bear subpopulations are currently faring quite well, with 92% of  the subpopulations studied either remaining stable or growing in recent years.” click here

Harvey et al 2017 are lost in the wild frontier of “climate science”

“This is an important new paper by a team of blue-chip authors. It reveals much about modern science, and shows one reason the campaign for policy action to fight climate change has produced so little despite so much invested over the past three decades. It defies standard analysis, so I will take you on a page by page tour. Each page makes a new low! You can draw your own conclusions.” click here

Should there be a “Red Team/Blue Team” Climate Assessment?

“EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt’s proposal for red/blue team assessment is a logical progression from the workshop. The hostile reaction it elicited from leading consensus advocates strongly suggests that they fear debate. Climate scientists whose mission is to advance scientific understanding have nothing to fear and much to gain. Those who seek to use climate science as a policy battering ram have good reason to feel uncomfortable at the prospect. The biggest winner from a red/blue team assessment will be the public. If people are to buy into policies that will drastically alter their way of life, they should be fully informed of the consequences and justifications. To do otherwise would represent a subversion of democracy.” click here

Tropospheric Temperatures as a Metric for Climate Sensitivity

John R. Christy and Richard T. McNider. Satellite Bulk Tropospheric Temperatures as a Metric for Climate Sensitivity. Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 53(4), 511-518, 2017   DOI:10.1007/s13143-017-0070-z

We identify and remove the main natural perturbations (e.g. volcanic activity, ENSOs) from the global mean lower tropospheric temperatures (T ) over January 1979 – June 2017 to estimate the underlying, potentially human-forced trend. The unaltered value is +0.155 K dec while the adjusted trend is +0.096 K dec , related primarily to the removal of volcanic cooling in the early part of the record. This is essentially the same value we determined in 1994 (+0.09 K dec , Christy and McNider, 1994) using only 15 years of data. If the warming rate of +0.096 K dec represents the net T response to increasing greenhouse radiative forcings, this implies that the T tropospheric transient climate response (ΔT at the time CO doubles) is +1.10 ± 0.26 K which is about half of the average of the IPCC AR5 climate models of 2.31 ± 0.20 K. Assuming that the net remaining unknown internal and external natural forcing over this period is near zero, the mismatch since 1979 between observations and CMIP-5 model values suggests that excessive sensitivity to enhanced radiative forcing in the models can be appreciable. The tropical region is mainly responsible for this discrepancy suggesting processes that are the likely sources of the extra sensitivity are (a) the parameterized hydrology of the deep atmosphere, (b) the parameterized heat-partitioning at the ocean- atmosphere interface and/or (c) unknown natural variations.

A Litigious Climate Threatens Science

Litigation is what happens when scientists depart from a search for what is true or what is closer to reality (with mutual respect to other scientists who may disagree with them) to pursue political expediency in order to get their way.

“I’ve worked alongside climate researchers for decades. Almost all of them are ethical, dedicated to science and not particularly political. But some leading figures and organizations in this community are weakening the norms that make science robust. A lawsuit filed in September and recently made public is a case in point.” click here

Senator Ed Markey off-base on climate model certainty

“My experience teaching climate models for the past decade convinces me that Kathleen was right when she said in the hearing: “The extent to which (temperature has risen in response to industrial carbon dioxide) is uncertain.”  This is in large part both because global temperature has been rising steadily, rebounding from a down-turn, since well before industrial gasses were an issue and because a number of natural, decades-long natural fluctuations in temperature, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific Oscillation and its cousin El Niῇo, are so poorly understood and measured.” click here

NOAA Science Corrupted by Politics

“Objective science once conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was coopted by the Obama administration to push anti-fossil energy policies under the guise of CO2 influences on climate change and ocean acidification. Just as they got caught by a whistleblower fudging ocean temperature records in advance of 2015 U.N. Paris Climate talks, they also actively played politics to garner media alarm attributing CO2 emissions to invalidated claims of impacts upon aquatic ecosystems.” click here