Tag Archives: drought

California Drought Moves Through the Central Valley

“The U.S. Bureau of Land Management has allocated100 percent water deliveries to Central Valley water districts for the first time in a decade, as the 80-degree weather this weekend causes risk of rapid snowmelt flooding.” click here

California Floods, Drought Linked to Atmospheric Waves

“This wave pattern is a global dynamic system that sometimes makes droughts or floods in California more likely to occur,” said NCAR scientist Haiyan Teng, lead author of the California paper. “As we learn more, this may eventually open a new window to long-term predictability.” click here

California Still Has a Permanent Drought (But it’s Not Water)

The drought in California is not water (see below). But there is a severe drought of common sense in the California state legislature Democrats who seem to be determined to run the state into the ground.

 

California drought is now overflowing reservoirs; Save our precious water!

happy-bouncing-smilie

“As rain continues in California, officials in San Joaquin County issued evacuation orders to 500 people Monday night after a levee on the swollen San Joaquin River broke on Monday evening near the town of Manteca, local NBC News affiliate KCRA reports.click here

Cal. Gov. Jerry Brown Waging “Holy” War Against “Climate Change”

“California’s drought conditions are actually historically normal; water shortages are created by incompetent and scheming government.” click here

 

Drought Predictions Unsupported, Overstated

P. C. D. Milly, K. A. Dunne. Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying Nature Climate Change (2016) doi:10.1038/nclimate3046

By various measures (drought area1 and intensity2, climatic aridity index3, and climatic water deficits4), some observational analyses have suggested that much of the Earths land has been drying during recent decades, but such drying seems inconsistent with observations of dryland greening and decreasing pan evaporation5. ‘Offline analyses of climate-model outputs from anthropogenic climate change (ACC) experiments portend continuation of putative drying through the twenty-first century3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, despite an expected increase in global land precipitation9. A ubiquitous increase in estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET), driven by atmospheric warming11, underlies the drying trends4, 8, 9, 12, but may be a methodological artefact5. Here we show that the PET estimator commonly used (the Penman–Monteith PET13 for either an open-water surface1, 2, 6, 7, 12 or a reference crop3, 4, 8, 9, 11) severely overpredicts the changes in non-water-stressed evapotranspiration computed in the climate models themselves in ACC experiments. This overprediction is partially due to neglect of stomatal conductance reductions commonly induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in climate models5. Our findings imply that historical and future tendencies towards continental drying, as characterized by offline-computed runoff, as well as other PET-dependent metrics, may be considerably weaker and less extensive than previously thought.

Additional discussion at WUWT

Predicting Drought Over India Using Atmospheric Electrical Columnar Resistance

Kulkarni MN. A new tool for predicting drought: An application over India. Scientific Reports. 2015 Jan 8;5:7680. doi: 10.1038/srep07680.

This is the first attempt of application of atmospheric electricity for rainfall prediction. The atmospheric electrical columnar resistance based on the model calculations involving satellite data has been proposed as a new predictor. It is physically sound, simple to calculate and not probabilistic like the standardized precipitation index. After applying this new predictor over India, it has been found that the data solely over the Bay of Bengal (BB) are sufficient to predict a drought over the country as a whole. Finally, two independent new methods to predict drought conditions and a preliminary forecast of the same for India for year 2014 have been given. Unlike the existing drought prediction techniques, the identification of drought conditions in a pre-drought year during 1981-1990 and 2001-2013 over India has been achieved 100% successfully using the suggested new methods. The association between rainfall and this new predictor has also been found on the sub-regional scale. So, the present predictor is expected to get global application and application in climate models. From the analysis, generally, a long period rising trend in aerosol concentration over the BB causes weak monsoon over India but that for a short time i.e. in pre-monsoon period strengthens it.

Click here for full paper (Open Access).