The NASA study is here.
The NASA study is here.
Kelly MJ. Trends in Extreme Weather Events since 1900 – An Enduring Conundrum for Wise Policy Advice. Journal of Geography & Natural Disasters, 2016, 6:1 http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2167-0587.1000155
It is widely promulgated and believed that human-caused global warming comes with increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. A survey of official weather sites and the scientific literature provides strong evidence that the first half of the 20th century had more extreme weather than the second half, when anthropogenic global warming is claimed to have been mainly responsible for observed climate change. The disconnect between real-world historical data on the 100 years’ time scale and the current predictions provides a real conundrum when any engineer tries to make a professional assessment of the real future value of any infrastructure project which aims to mitigate or adapt to climate change. What is the appropriate basis on which to make judgements when theory and data are in such disagreement?
The basic thrust of this article is that extreme weather events result in infectious disease outbreaks. This is a given. We know this from experience as well as science and we should learn what we can from our experiences to minimize or prevent future outbreaks.
But the premise that “Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change.” is pure speculation. In fact, the best available science says “human-driven climate change” being referred to here has no relationship to the frequency of extreme weather events.
McMichael AJ. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks. Virulence. 2015 Jul 13:1-5.
Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and ‘pestilence’ associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.