Tag Archives: extreme weather

No Significant Trend in Major Floods in North America, Europe

Glenn A. Hodgkins, Paul H. Whitfield, Donald H. Burn, Jamie Hannaford, Benjamin Renard, Kerstin, Stahl, Anne K. Fleig, Henrik Madsen, Luis Mediero, Johanna, Korhonen, Conor Murphy, Donna Wilson. Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe  Journal of Hydrology Volume 552, September 2017, Pages 704-717  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.027

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

Atlantic Storm Trends Not Statistically Significant

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Facts About Hurricane Irma

  1. It’s only the 7th most intense at landfall in US history.
  2. It formed over water that was two degrees cooler than normal,
  3. 1893, 1933, 1950, 1995, and 2005 had more Accumulated Cyclone Energy by Sept 10.
  4. In 1933 two hurricanes hit the US in just 24 hours
  5. In 1893, 1909, 2004 there were three Cat 3+ landfalls in US (blame climate change).
  6. NOAA itself says there’s no evidence anyone can detect that greenhouse gas emissions have an effect on hurricanes.

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Global Warming Inconsequential to Harvey

” “They are using hand-waving arguments to push an agenda, which observations, theory, and modeling show to be incorrect,” Mass wrote. “Global warming is a serious issue and mankind must deal with it, but hype and exaggeration of the current effects is counterproductive in the long term.” ” click here

Political Opportunism Raining on Harvey

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Extreme Weather is Becoming Less Common in the United States

“Over the past century, the frequency of both very hot and very cold days has plummeted in the US. ” click here

Extreme Weather Can Be Beneficial for the Earth and its Inhabitants

“The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) released new findings on Tuesday that reveal extreme weather can be beneficial to the Earth and its inhabitants.” click here

The NASA study is here.