Tag Archives: global temperature

How the US temperature record has been corrupted

Average global temperature is declining

“The World Meteorological Organisation is misleading the public by suggesting that global warming and its impacts are accelerating. In fact, since 2016 global average temperature has continued to decline.” click here

Sea surface temperature drives global climate

Andrea J. Dittus et al. Understanding the role of sea surface temperature-forcing for variability in global temperature and precipitation extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes Volume 21, September 2018, Pages 1-9.

The oceans are a well-known source of natural variability in the climate system, although their ability to account for inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation extremes over land remains unclear. In this study, the role of sea-surface temperature (SST)-forcing is investigated for variability and trends in a range of commonly used temperature and precipitation extreme indices over the period 1959 to 2013. Using atmospheric simulations forced by observed SST and sea-ice concentrations (SIC) from three models participating in the Climate of the Twentieth Century Plus (C20C+) Project, results show that oceanic boundary conditions drive a substantial fraction of inter-annual variability in global average temperature extreme indices, as well as, to a lower extent, for precipitation extremes. The observed trends in temperature extremes are generally well captured by the SST-forced simulations although some regional features such as the lack of warming in daytime warm temperature extremes over South America are not reproduced in the model simulations. Furthermore, the models simulate too strong increases in warm day frequency compared to observations over North America. For extreme precipitation trends, the accuracy of the simulated trend pattern is regionally variable, and a thorough assessment is difficult due to the lack of locally significant trends in the observations. This study shows that prescribing SST and SIC holds potential predictability for extremes in some (mainly tropical) regions at the inter-annual time-scale.

Solar activity drove a significant percentage of recent warming

Nicola Scafetta and Richard C. Willson. Comparison of Decadal Trends among Total Solar Irradiance Composites of Satellite Observations. Advances in Astronomy Volume 2019, https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/1214896

We present a new analysis of the two-decade-old controversy over interpretation of satellite observations of total solar irradiance (TSI) since 1978 and the implications of our findings for TSI as a driver of climate change. Our approach compares the methods of constructing the two most commonly referenced TSI composites (ACRIM and PMOD) that relate successive observational databases and two others recently constructed using a novel statistical approach. Our primary focus is on the disparate decadal trending results of the ACRIM and PMOD TSI composite time series, namely, whether they indicate an increasing trend from 1980 to 2000 and a decreasing trend thereafter (ACRIM) or a continuously decreasing trend since 1980 (PMOD). Construction of the four-decade observational TSI composites from 1978 to the present requires the use of results from two less precise Earth Radiation Budget experiments (Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS/ERBE) during the so-called ACRIM-Gap (1989.5–1991.8), between the end of the ACRIM1 and the beginning of the ACRIM2 experiments. The ACRIM and PMOD composites used the ERB and ERBE results, respectively, to bridge the gap. The well-established paradigm of positive correlation between Solar Magnetic Field Strength (SMFS) and TSI supports the validity of the upward trend in the ERB results and the corresponding decadal upward trend of the ACRIM composite during solar cycles 21 and 22. The ERBE results have a sensor degradation caused downward gap trend, contrary to the SMFS/TSI paradigm, that biased the PMOD composite decadal trend downward during solar cycles 21 and 22. The different choice of gap bridging data is clearly the cause of the ACRIM and PMOD TSI trending difference, agreeing closely in both magnitude and direction. We also analyze two recently proposed statistical TSI composites. Unfortunately their methodology cannot account for the gap degradation of the ERBE experiment and their resulting uncertainties are too large to uniquely distinguish between the trending of the ACRIM and PMOD composites. Our analysis supports the ACRIM TSI increasing trend during the 1980 to 2000 period, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.

Lack of temperature monitoring stations renders global temperature maps unreliable

“The map looks nothing like the one NOAA presents to the public.  By pixel count, 51% of the land area is gray “missing data,” 16% is below normal temperature, and 33% is above normal. The animation below shows how they created one of the eight warmest “Februarys” in South America – by simply making up data, including record warmth in Brazil in locations with no actual thermometer data.”  click here

West Virginia cooling, not warming

“Scientists identify more regions of the world that haven’t warmed up – and have, instead, cooled – since the early 1900s.” click here

“Global warming” unnoticeable over the prior 50 years

The amount of “global” warming occurring over the prior 50 years has been very small. It is hardly noticeable compared to the typical range of variability in local temperatures. click here

Not convinced? The graph below is typical of cities I have examined across the globe.