Tag Archives: global warming

2017 Research Papers do not Support “Hockey Stick” Global Warming

“Just within the last 5 months, 58 more papers and 80 new graphs have been published that continue to undermine the popularized conception of a slowly cooling Earth temperature history followed by a dramatic hockey-stick-shaped uptick, or an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times.” click here

Global Temperature Peak Unrelated to Anthropogenic Forcing

Nicola Scafetta, Aberto Mirandola, Antonio Bianchini. Natural climate variability, part 2: Interpretation of the post 2000 temperature standstill International Journal of Heat and Technology. Vol. 35, Special Issue 1, September 2017, pp. S18-S26 DOI: 10.18280/ijht.35Sp0103

The period from 2000 to 2016 shows a modest warming trend that the advocates of the anthropogenic global warming theory have labeled as the “pause” or “hiatus.” These labels were chosen to indicate that the observed temperature standstill period results from an unforced internal fluctuation of the climate (e.g. by heat uptake of the deep ocean) that the computer climate models are claimed to occasionally reproduce without contradicting the anthropogenic global warming theory (AGWT) paradigm. In part 1 of this work, it was shown that the statistical analysis rejects such labels with a 95% confidence because the standstill period has lasted more than the 15 year period limit provided by the AGWT advocates themselves. Anyhow, the strong warming peak observed in 2015-2016, the “hottest year on record,” gave the impression that the temperature standstill stopped in 2014. Herein, the authors show that such a temperature peak is unrelated to anthropogenic forcing: it simply emerged from the natural fast fluctuations of the climate associated to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. By removing the ENSO signature, the authors show that the temperature trend from 2000 to 2016 clearly diverges from the general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Thus, the GCMs models used to support the AGWT are very likely flawed. By contrast, the semi-empirical climate models proposed in 2011 and 2013 by Scafetta, which are based on a specific set of natural climatic oscillations believed to be astronomically induced plus a significantly reduced anthropogenic contribution, agree far better with the latest observations.

“The United States is Cooling”

“USHCN raw data is by far the best long term weather record on Earth. The bottom line is the US is cooling, and NOAA temperature adjustments are fraudulent.” click here

NOAA Global Temperature Data not Proof of Global Warming

“The global temperature record doesn’t demonstrate an upward trend. It doesn’t demonstrate a lack of upward trend either. Temperature readings today are about 0.75°C higher than they were when measurement began in 1880, but you can’t always slap a trendline onto a graph and declare, “See? It’s rising!” Often what you think is a pattern is actually just Brownian motion. When the global temperature record is tested against a hypothesis of random drift, the data fails to rule out the hypothesis. This doesn’t mean that there isn’t an upward trend, but it does mean that the global temperature record can be explained by simply assuming a random walk.click here

Volcanoes Under Antarctica Cause Warming

“It’s possibly the densest concentration of volcanoes in the world, some as high as 4km and wedidn’t even know these existed til recently.” click here

Surface-Warming Hiatus Attributable to Internal Variability

Christopher Hedemann, Thorsten Mauritsen, Johann Jungclaus1 and Jochem Marotzke. The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses. Nature Climate Change, 7:336-339 (2017). doi:10.1038/nclimate3274 

During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated1 . This surface-warming hiatus is attributed by some studies to model errors in external forcing2–4 , while others point to heat rearrangements in the ocean5–10 caused by internal variability, the timing of which cannot be predicted by the models1 . However, observational analyses disagree about which ocean region is responsible11–16. Here we show that the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance. Energy budgeting for the ocean surface layer over a 100-member historical ensemble reveals that hiatuses are caused by energy-flux deviations as small as 0.08 W m−2 , which can originate at the top of the atmosphere, in the ocean, or both. Budgeting with existing observations cannot constrain the origin of the recent hiatus, because the uncertainty in observations dwarfs the small flux deviations that could cause a hiatus. The sensitivity of these flux deviations to the observational dataset and to energy budget choices helps explain why previous studies conflict, and suggests that the origin of the recent hiatus may never be identified.

Warmer Temperatures Might Actually Enhance Predator Control of Parasites

Spencer R. Hall, Alan J. Tessier, Meghan A. Duffy, Marianne Huebner, and Carla E. Cceres. Warmer Does Not Have to Mean Sicker: Temperature and Predators can Jointly Drive Timing of Epidemics. Ecology, 87(7), 2006, pp. 1684-1695

Ecologists and epidemiologists worry that global warming will increase disease prevalence. These fears arise because several direct and indirect mechanisms link warming to disease, and because parasite outbreaks are increasing in many taxa. However, this outcome is not a foregone conclusion, as physiological and community-interaction-based mechanisms may inhibit epidemics at warmer temperatures. Here, we explore this thermal-community ecology-based mechanism, centering on fish predators that selectively prey upon Daphnia infected with a fungal parasite. We used an interplay between a simple model built around this system’s biology and laboratory experiments designed to parameterize the model. Through this data-model interaction, we found that a given density of predators can inhibit epidemics as temperatures rise when thermal physiology of the predator scales more steeply than that of the host. This case is met in our nsh-Daphnia-iungus system. Furthermore, the combination of steeply scaling parasite physiology and predation-induced mortality can inhibit epidemics at lower temperatures. This effect may terminate fungal epidemics of Daphnia as lakes cool in autumn. Thus, predation and physiology could constrain epidemics to intermediate temperatures (a pattern that we see in our system). More generally, these results accentuate the possibility that warmer temperatures might actually enhance predator control of parasites.