Tag Archives: sea surface temperature

North Atlantic sea level is falling

“Despite stressing global sea level rise is worrisome and due to anthropogenic warming, Chafik et al. (2019) report a distinct cooling trend in the North Atlantic that coincides with a transition to falling regional sea levels since 2004.” click here

News reports about Arctic Ice are not based on reality…

Southern ocean temperature pattern refutes climate models

“The IPCC report said “Feedbacks associated with changes in sea ice and snow amplify surface warming near the poles” and gave several supporting references. But the Southern Oceans temperature pattern above shows the exact opposite: the further south you get, the greater the rate of cooling. In fact, at almost the precise latitude where the IPCC expected the most amplified warming there was some of the fastest cooling on the planet! [Note where zero trend is on the Y axis].” click here

Sea surface temperature drives global climate

Andrea J. Dittus et al. Understanding the role of sea surface temperature-forcing for variability in global temperature and precipitation extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes Volume 21, September 2018, Pages 1-9.

The oceans are a well-known source of natural variability in the climate system, although their ability to account for inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation extremes over land remains unclear. In this study, the role of sea-surface temperature (SST)-forcing is investigated for variability and trends in a range of commonly used temperature and precipitation extreme indices over the period 1959 to 2013. Using atmospheric simulations forced by observed SST and sea-ice concentrations (SIC) from three models participating in the Climate of the Twentieth Century Plus (C20C+) Project, results show that oceanic boundary conditions drive a substantial fraction of inter-annual variability in global average temperature extreme indices, as well as, to a lower extent, for precipitation extremes. The observed trends in temperature extremes are generally well captured by the SST-forced simulations although some regional features such as the lack of warming in daytime warm temperature extremes over South America are not reproduced in the model simulations. Furthermore, the models simulate too strong increases in warm day frequency compared to observations over North America. For extreme precipitation trends, the accuracy of the simulated trend pattern is regionally variable, and a thorough assessment is difficult due to the lack of locally significant trends in the observations. This study shows that prescribing SST and SIC holds potential predictability for extremes in some (mainly tropical) regions at the inter-annual time-scale.

Ocean warming in climate models differ widely

“One of the problems with the results in the Cheng et al. study is how the 90% confidence intervals are computed. Most people will simply assume they are related to how well the stated numbers are known. That is, how good the various observational and model estimates of ocean warming are.

But they would be wrong.” click here

Record warm waters off California coast

“California has seen a range of natural extremes this summer, from heat waves to wildfires. The state can now add to the list record-warm ocean temperatures. On August 1, 2018, researchers from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography observed water temperatures of 25.9 degrees Celsius (78.6 degrees Fahrenheit) along the coast at La Jolla, exceeding the previous record of 25.8°C (78.4°F) set in 1931.” click here

Ocean warming only 0.02C since mid-1990s

Carl Wunsch. Towards determining uncertainties in global oceanic mean values of heat, salt, and surface elevation. Journal Tellus A:Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography Volume 70, 2018 Issue 1, Pages 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2018.1471911

Lower-bounds on uncertainties in oceanic data and a model are calculated for the 20-year time means and their temporal evolution for oceanic temperature, salinity, and sea surface height, during the data-dense interval 1994–2013. The essential step of separating stochastic from systematic or deterministic elements of the fields is explored by suppressing the globally correlated components of the fields. Justification lies in the physics and the brevity of a 20-year estimate relative to the full oceanic adjustment time, and the inferred near-linearity of response on short time intervals. Lower-bound uncertainties reflecting the only stochastic elements of the state estimate are then calculated from bootstrap estimates. Trends are estimated as  in elevation, 0.0011 ±  0.0001 °C/y, and (−2.825 ± 0.17) × 10−5 for surface elevation, temperature and salt, with formal 2-standard deviation uncertainties. The temperature change corresponds to a 20-year average ocean heating rate of  W/m2 of which 0.1 W/m2 arises from the geothermal forcing. Systematic errors must be determined separately.