Tag Archives: solar activity

Solar cycle 24 predictions fail to materialize, “unprecedentedly wrong”

“Back on March 7, 2006, the National Science Foundation issued a press release predicting that the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 would be “30 to 50 percent stronger” than Solar Cycle 23. Solar Cycle 23 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 180.3. The press release described the forecast as “unprecedented”. Perhaps it was as in unprecedentedly wrong. Solar Cycle 24 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 116.4 in April 2014, which made it 35% weaker than Solar Cycle 23. “ click here

Solar activity affects the earth’s climate, but just how much?

“When it comes to the Sun’s influence on climate, one conclusion is certain: there is no widespread scientific agreement as to how and to what extent solar activity and its related parameters (i.e., galactic cosmic rays, geomagnetic activity, solar wind flux) impact changes in the Earth’s temperature and precipitation.” click here

Forbes censored valid climate science

“A few days ago I was interviewed by Doron Levin, for an article to appear online on forbes.com. After having seen a draft (to make sure that I am quoted correctly), I told him good luck with getting it published, as I doubted it will.” click here

Solar activity, atmospheric-oceanic variability drives temperatures



In this paper, a fragile ecological area in the Western Tianshan National Nature Reserve of China was selected as the research region, and Picea schrenkiana, which is sensitive to climate change, was selected as the research object. The mean minimum temperature in the growing season of the previous year (May to September) was the main limiting factor for tree radial growth based on an analysis of the relationship between chronological series and climatic factors during 1959–2012 (r = –0.792, p < 0.05). Moreover, the relationship was stable, which showed that tree rings can be used as alternative materials for climate reconstruction. Therefore, the mean minimum temperature of the previous year in 1680–2012 was reconstructed, and the explained variance of the reconstruction equation was 62.7% (R2adj = 62.0%, F = 85.8). The 31 dramatically altered years were found via char- acteristic year analyses, and extreme changes occurred most often under relatively warm conditions. The mean minimum temperature in the reconstruction shows a clear warming trend by the 11-year moving average of the reconstructive series since the 1950s (the temperature increase: 0.341°C/decade). The driving factors of the mean minimum temperature were influenced mainly by the interaction of solar activity and large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability, especially the westerly circulations.

Galactic cosmic rays affect Earth’s climate by increasing cloud cover

“New evidence suggests that high-energy particles from space known as galactic cosmic rays affect the Earth’s climate by increasing cloud cover, causing an “umbrella effect”. “ click here

NCAR solar cycle prediction exactly backwards

“In 2006, our top government experts issued an unprecedented, breakthrough forecast that the next solar cycle would be 30-50% stronger than the previous one.

They had it exactly backwards. The current solar cycle is down nearly 50% from the previous one, and is the weakest in over a century.” click here

Solar activity drove a significant percentage of recent warming

Nicola Scafetta and Richard C. Willson. Comparison of Decadal Trends among Total Solar Irradiance Composites of Satellite Observations. Advances in Astronomy Volume 2019, https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/1214896

We present a new analysis of the two-decade-old controversy over interpretation of satellite observations of total solar irradiance (TSI) since 1978 and the implications of our findings for TSI as a driver of climate change. Our approach compares the methods of constructing the two most commonly referenced TSI composites (ACRIM and PMOD) that relate successive observational databases and two others recently constructed using a novel statistical approach. Our primary focus is on the disparate decadal trending results of the ACRIM and PMOD TSI composite time series, namely, whether they indicate an increasing trend from 1980 to 2000 and a decreasing trend thereafter (ACRIM) or a continuously decreasing trend since 1980 (PMOD). Construction of the four-decade observational TSI composites from 1978 to the present requires the use of results from two less precise Earth Radiation Budget experiments (Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS/ERBE) during the so-called ACRIM-Gap (1989.5–1991.8), between the end of the ACRIM1 and the beginning of the ACRIM2 experiments. The ACRIM and PMOD composites used the ERB and ERBE results, respectively, to bridge the gap. The well-established paradigm of positive correlation between Solar Magnetic Field Strength (SMFS) and TSI supports the validity of the upward trend in the ERB results and the corresponding decadal upward trend of the ACRIM composite during solar cycles 21 and 22. The ERBE results have a sensor degradation caused downward gap trend, contrary to the SMFS/TSI paradigm, that biased the PMOD composite decadal trend downward during solar cycles 21 and 22. The different choice of gap bridging data is clearly the cause of the ACRIM and PMOD TSI trending difference, agreeing closely in both magnitude and direction. We also analyze two recently proposed statistical TSI composites. Unfortunately their methodology cannot account for the gap degradation of the ERBE experiment and their resulting uncertainties are too large to uniquely distinguish between the trending of the ACRIM and PMOD composites. Our analysis supports the ACRIM TSI increasing trend during the 1980 to 2000 period, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.