Tag Archives: solar variability

500-Year Cycle Signals in Solar Activity

Lihua Ma, Zhiqiang Yin, Yanben Han. Quasi 500-Year Cycle Signals in Solar Activity, Earth Science Research; Vol. 7, No. 1; 2018

Direct observations of solar activity are available for the past four century, so some proxies reflecting solar activity such as 14C, 10Be and geomagnetic variations are used to reconstruct solar activity in the past. In this present paper, the authors use rectified wavelet power transform and time-averaged wavelet power spectrum to investigate long-term fluctuations of the reconstructed solar activity series. The results show an obvious quasi 500-year cycle exists in the past solar activity. Three reconstructed solar activity series from 14C variations confirm the periodic signals.

Modern Warming and Past Cooling Correlate with Solar Activity

M.Oliva et al. The Little Ice Age in Iberian mountains. Earth-Science Reviews, 177 (2018), pp.175-208.

The Little Ice Age (LIA) is known as one of the coldest stages of the Holocene. Most records from the Northern Hemisphere show evidence of significantly colder conditions during the LIA, which in some cases had substantial socio-economic consequences. In this study we investigated the magnitude and timing of climate variability during the LIA in the mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, based on a wide range of natural records (including from glacial, periglacial, and lacustrine/peatland areas; fluvial/alluvial deposits; speleothems; and tree rings), historical documents, and early instrument data. The onset of the LIA commenced in approximately CE 1300, and cold conditions with alternating moisture regimes persisted until approximately CE 1850; the environmental responses ranged from rapid (e.g. tree rings) to delayed (e.g. glaciers). The colder climate of the LIA was accompanied by severe droughts, floods, and cold/heat waves that showed significant spatio-temporal variation across the Iberian mountains. Several phases within the LIA have been detected, including (a) 1300–1480: increasing cooling with moderate climate oscillations; (b) 1480–1570: relatively warmer conditions; (c) 1570–1620: gradual cooling; (d) 1620–1715: coldest climate period of the LIA, particularly during the Maunder Minimum, with temperatures approximately 2 °C below those at present; (e) 1715–1760: warmer temperatures and a low frequency of extreme events; (f) 1760–1800: climate deterioration and more climate extremes (i.e. cold and heat waves, floods and droughts); (g) 1800–1850: highly variable climate conditions alternating with stability (1800–1815), extreme events (1815–1835), and a slight trend of warming associated with intense hydrometeorological events (1835–1850); (h) since 1850: a gradual staggered increase in temperature of approximately 1 °C. Post-LIA warming has led to substantial changes in geo-ecological dynamics, mainly through shrinking of the spatial domain affected by cold climate processes.

Cosmic Rays from the Sun are Increasing

“High altitude instrumentation balloon measurements show an increase in cosmic rays since 2015” click here

Solar activity affects all surface geophysical systems

Yavor Chapanov, Cyril Ron and Jan Vondrak.   Decadal Cycles of Earth Rotation, Mean Sea Level and Climate, Excited by Solar Activity. Acta Geodyn. Geomater., Vol. 14, No. 2 (186), 241–250, 2017  DOI: 10.13168/AGG.2017.0007 

The solar activity affects all surface geosystems, including weather and climate indices, winds, rains, snow covers, mean sea level, river streamflows and other hydrological cycles. The mean sea level and polar ice changes cause common variations of the principal moments of inertia and Earth rotation with decadal, centennial and millennial periods. The mean sea level, Earth rotation
and climate indices have also some oscillations with periods below 40 years, whose origin is not connected with the known tidal and solar effects. The shape of solar cycles is rather different from sinusoidal form, so they affect geosystems by many short-term harmonics. A possible solar origin of decadal variations of Earth rotation, mean sea level and climate indices is investigated by the harmonics of Jose, de Vries and Suess cycles with centennial periods of 178.7, 208 and 231 years. The common decadal cycles of solar-terrestrial influences are investigated by long time series of Length of Day (LOD), Mean Sea Level (MSL) variations at Stockholm, ElNiño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), temperature and precipitation over Eastern Europe, Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), Wolf’s Numbers Wn and North-South solar asymmetry. A good agreement exists between the decadal cycles of LOD, MSL, climate and solar indices whose periods are between 12-13, 14-16, 16-18 and 28-33 years. The new linear models of the decadal
common Earth and solar cycles may help for long term forecasts of many global and local changes.

Solar Cycle Impacts Earth’s Weather and Climate

Lesley J. Gray, Will Ball and Stergios Misios. Solar Influences on climate over the Atlantic / European SectorRadiation Processes in the Atmosphere and Ocean (IRS2016) AIP Conf. Proc. 1810, 020002-1–020002-8; doi: 10.1063/1.4975498

There is growing evidence that variability associated with the 11-year solar cycle has an impact at the Earth’s surface and influences its weather and climate. Although the direct response to the Sun’s variability is extremely small, a number of different mechanisms have been suggested that could amplify the signal, resulting in regional signals that are much larger than expected. In this paper the observed solar cycle signal at the Earth’s surface is described, together with proposed mechanisms that involve modulation via the total incoming solar irradiance and via modulation of the ultraviolet part of the solar spectrum that influences ozone production in the stratosphere.

Approaching Solar Minimum is Real; Prepare for Cooling

“Today marks the 6th day in a row that the sun is blank and the 36th time this year – already more spotless days than all of 2016.   In what has turned out to be a historically weak solar cycle (#24), the sun continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum.” click here

Small TOA Energy-Flux Deviations Impact Global Temperatures

Christopher Hedemann, Thorsten Mauritsen, Johann Jungclaus, Jochem Marotzke. The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses. Nature Climate Change (2017) doi:10.1038/nclimate3274

“During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated1. This surface-warming hiatus is attributed by some studies to model errors in external forcing2, 3, 4, while others point to heat rearrangements in the ocean5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 caused by internal variability, the timing of which cannot be predicted by the models1. However, observational analyses disagree about which ocean region is responsible11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16. Here we show that the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance. Energy budgeting for the ocean surface layer over a 100-member historical ensemble reveals that hiatuses are caused by energy-flux deviations as small as 0.08Wm−2, which can originate at the top of the atmosphere, in the ocean, or both. Budgeting with existing observations cannot constrain the origin of the recent hiatus, because the uncertainty in observations dwarfs the small flux deviations that could cause a hiatus. The sensitivity of these flux deviations to the observational dataset and to energy budget choices helps explain why previous studies conflict, and suggests that the origin of the recent hiatus may never be identified.” click here