Tag Archives: solar variability

Solar activity affects all surface geophysical systems

Yavor Chapanov, Cyril Ron and Jan Vondrak.   Decadal Cycles of Earth Rotation, Mean Sea Level and Climate, Excited by Solar Activity. Acta Geodyn. Geomater., Vol. 14, No. 2 (186), 241–250, 2017  DOI: 10.13168/AGG.2017.0007 

The solar activity affects all surface geosystems, including weather and climate indices, winds, rains, snow covers, mean sea level, river streamflows and other hydrological cycles. The mean sea level and polar ice changes cause common variations of the principal moments of inertia and Earth rotation with decadal, centennial and millennial periods. The mean sea level, Earth rotation
and climate indices have also some oscillations with periods below 40 years, whose origin is not connected with the known tidal and solar effects. The shape of solar cycles is rather different from sinusoidal form, so they affect geosystems by many short-term harmonics. A possible solar origin of decadal variations of Earth rotation, mean sea level and climate indices is investigated by the harmonics of Jose, de Vries and Suess cycles with centennial periods of 178.7, 208 and 231 years. The common decadal cycles of solar-terrestrial influences are investigated by long time series of Length of Day (LOD), Mean Sea Level (MSL) variations at Stockholm, ElNiño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), temperature and precipitation over Eastern Europe, Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), Wolf’s Numbers Wn and North-South solar asymmetry. A good agreement exists between the decadal cycles of LOD, MSL, climate and solar indices whose periods are between 12-13, 14-16, 16-18 and 28-33 years. The new linear models of the decadal
common Earth and solar cycles may help for long term forecasts of many global and local changes.

Solar Cycle Impacts Earth’s Weather and Climate

Lesley J. Gray, Will Ball and Stergios Misios. Solar Influences on climate over the Atlantic / European SectorRadiation Processes in the Atmosphere and Ocean (IRS2016) AIP Conf. Proc. 1810, 020002-1–020002-8; doi: 10.1063/1.4975498

There is growing evidence that variability associated with the 11-year solar cycle has an impact at the Earth’s surface and influences its weather and climate. Although the direct response to the Sun’s variability is extremely small, a number of different mechanisms have been suggested that could amplify the signal, resulting in regional signals that are much larger than expected. In this paper the observed solar cycle signal at the Earth’s surface is described, together with proposed mechanisms that involve modulation via the total incoming solar irradiance and via modulation of the ultraviolet part of the solar spectrum that influences ozone production in the stratosphere.

Approaching Solar Minimum is Real; Prepare for Cooling

“Today marks the 6th day in a row that the sun is blank and the 36th time this year – already more spotless days than all of 2016.   In what has turned out to be a historically weak solar cycle (#24), the sun continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum.” click here

Small TOA Energy-Flux Deviations Impact Global Temperatures

Christopher Hedemann, Thorsten Mauritsen, Johann Jungclaus, Jochem Marotzke. The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses. Nature Climate Change (2017) doi:10.1038/nclimate3274

“During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated1. This surface-warming hiatus is attributed by some studies to model errors in external forcing2, 3, 4, while others point to heat rearrangements in the ocean5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 caused by internal variability, the timing of which cannot be predicted by the models1. However, observational analyses disagree about which ocean region is responsible11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16. Here we show that the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance. Energy budgeting for the ocean surface layer over a 100-member historical ensemble reveals that hiatuses are caused by energy-flux deviations as small as 0.08Wm−2, which can originate at the top of the atmosphere, in the ocean, or both. Budgeting with existing observations cannot constrain the origin of the recent hiatus, because the uncertainty in observations dwarfs the small flux deviations that could cause a hiatus. The sensitivity of these flux deviations to the observational dataset and to energy budget choices helps explain why previous studies conflict, and suggests that the origin of the recent hiatus may never be identified.” click here

Anthropogenic Global Warming Paradigm; Data Adjusted to Fit the Model

“In late 2015, Soon, Connolly, and Connolly (hereafter SCC15) published a  comprehensive (101 pages) analysis of how the modern anthropogenic global warming (AGW) paradigm has been constructed.  The paper, published in  Earth Science Reviews, is entitled Re-evaluating the role of solar variability on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since the 19th century.” click here

Solar Minimum = Increase in Cosmic Rays Reaching the Earth

“One of the consequences of extended periods of low solar activity is that it can result in an increase in cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Galactic cosmic rays are high-energy particles originating from space that impact the Earth’s atmosphere. Most of the incoming cosmic ray particles are protons and they actually arrive as individual particles – not in the form of a ray as the term “ray” would suggest. Usually, cosmic rays are held at bay by the sun’s magnetic field, which envelops and protects all the planets in the solar system. But the sun’s magnetic shield is weakening as the current solar cycle heads towards the next solar minimum and this allows more cosmic rays to reach the Earth’s atmosphere.” click here

Solar Variability Affects the Earth’s Climate

“The IPCC bases its conclusion that man has caused most of the warming in the late 20thcentury solely on two assumptions. The first is that the only natural causes of warming or cooling are TSI (total solar irradiance) and volcanism. Further, they assume the variability of TSI is very small and the climatic effect on the Earth is instantaneous and evenly distributed. We can see from the references……that this assumption is weak. The second assumption is that the warming from 1951 to 2010 is mostly due to man…… This assumption is also dubious….” click here