Tag Archives: solar variability

Solar cycle 24 predictions fail to materialize, “unprecedentedly wrong”

“Back on March 7, 2006, the National Science Foundation issued a press release predicting that the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 would be “30 to 50 percent stronger” than Solar Cycle 23. Solar Cycle 23 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 180.3. The press release described the forecast as “unprecedented”. Perhaps it was as in unprecedentedly wrong. Solar Cycle 24 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 116.4 in April 2014, which made it 35% weaker than Solar Cycle 23. “ click here

Solar activity affects the earth’s climate, but just how much?

“When it comes to the Sun’s influence on climate, one conclusion is certain: there is no widespread scientific agreement as to how and to what extent solar activity and its related parameters (i.e., galactic cosmic rays, geomagnetic activity, solar wind flux) impact changes in the Earth’s temperature and precipitation.” click here

Forbes censored valid climate science

“A few days ago I was interviewed by Doron Levin, for an article to appear online on forbes.com. After having seen a draft (to make sure that I am quoted correctly), I told him good luck with getting it published, as I doubted it will.” click here

Solar activity, atmospheric-oceanic variability drives temperatures

LIANG JIAO, SHENGJIE WANG, YUAN JIANG, XUERUI LIU. A 333-YEAR RECORD OF THE MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION IN THE WESTERN TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS, CHINA. GEOCHRONOMETRIA 46 (2019): 37–48 DOI 10.1515/geochr-2015-0104

 

In this paper, a fragile ecological area in the Western Tianshan National Nature Reserve of China was selected as the research region, and Picea schrenkiana, which is sensitive to climate change, was selected as the research object. The mean minimum temperature in the growing season of the previous year (May to September) was the main limiting factor for tree radial growth based on an analysis of the relationship between chronological series and climatic factors during 1959–2012 (r = –0.792, p < 0.05). Moreover, the relationship was stable, which showed that tree rings can be used as alternative materials for climate reconstruction. Therefore, the mean minimum temperature of the previous year in 1680–2012 was reconstructed, and the explained variance of the reconstruction equation was 62.7% (R2adj = 62.0%, F = 85.8). The 31 dramatically altered years were found via char- acteristic year analyses, and extreme changes occurred most often under relatively warm conditions. The mean minimum temperature in the reconstruction shows a clear warming trend by the 11-year moving average of the reconstructive series since the 1950s (the temperature increase: 0.341°C/decade). The driving factors of the mean minimum temperature were influenced mainly by the interaction of solar activity and large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability, especially the westerly circulations.

Solar activity impacts global climate cycles

“In his presentation, the renowned Danish scientist showed how solar activity modulates the cosmic rays striking the atmosphere, and thus the climate-impacting cloud cover. Dr. Svensmark shows that there are powerful correlations worldwide between solar activity and climatic cycles, and so the sun is clearly playing a role in combination with the cosmic cloud-seeding rays. Hundreds of studies confirm this.” click here

Climate changes are driven primarily by the sun

“Hailed as ‘the last piece of the puzzle’ in codifying our understanding of the mechanism(s) that cause climate changes, scientists are increasingly turning to Sun-modulated cosmic ray flux and cloud cover variations as the explanation for decadal- and centennial-scale global warming and cooling. In other words, climate changes are increasingly being attributed to natural variability, not anthropogenic activity. “ click here

500-Year Cycle Signals in Solar Activity

Lihua Ma, Zhiqiang Yin, Yanben Han. Quasi 500-Year Cycle Signals in Solar Activity, Earth Science Research; Vol. 7, No. 1; 2018

Direct observations of solar activity are available for the past four century, so some proxies reflecting solar activity such as 14C, 10Be and geomagnetic variations are used to reconstruct solar activity in the past. In this present paper, the authors use rectified wavelet power transform and time-averaged wavelet power spectrum to investigate long-term fluctuations of the reconstructed solar activity series. The results show an obvious quasi 500-year cycle exists in the past solar activity. Three reconstructed solar activity series from 14C variations confirm the periodic signals.