Tag Archives: surface temperature

Corruption of the US Temperature Record

“The US temperature record is very important, because it is the only large area on the planet with a high quality long term daily temperature record.” click here

Urban heat island effect significantly increased UK temperatures

“This paper finds through the method of observation minus reanalysis that urbanisation has significantly increased the daily minimum 2‐m temperature in the United Kingdom by up to 1.70 K.” click here

NASA attempts to rewrite Iceland climate history

“The Arctic is very important for people pushing global warming, because that is where they claim most of the warming is occurring.

In NASA GISS Version 2 (V2) – Iceland was warmer in the 1940s than in recent years.” click here

Solar activity drove a significant percentage of recent warming

Nicola Scafetta and Richard C. Willson. Comparison of Decadal Trends among Total Solar Irradiance Composites of Satellite Observations. Advances in Astronomy Volume 2019, https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/1214896

We present a new analysis of the two-decade-old controversy over interpretation of satellite observations of total solar irradiance (TSI) since 1978 and the implications of our findings for TSI as a driver of climate change. Our approach compares the methods of constructing the two most commonly referenced TSI composites (ACRIM and PMOD) that relate successive observational databases and two others recently constructed using a novel statistical approach. Our primary focus is on the disparate decadal trending results of the ACRIM and PMOD TSI composite time series, namely, whether they indicate an increasing trend from 1980 to 2000 and a decreasing trend thereafter (ACRIM) or a continuously decreasing trend since 1980 (PMOD). Construction of the four-decade observational TSI composites from 1978 to the present requires the use of results from two less precise Earth Radiation Budget experiments (Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS/ERBE) during the so-called ACRIM-Gap (1989.5–1991.8), between the end of the ACRIM1 and the beginning of the ACRIM2 experiments. The ACRIM and PMOD composites used the ERB and ERBE results, respectively, to bridge the gap. The well-established paradigm of positive correlation between Solar Magnetic Field Strength (SMFS) and TSI supports the validity of the upward trend in the ERB results and the corresponding decadal upward trend of the ACRIM composite during solar cycles 21 and 22. The ERBE results have a sensor degradation caused downward gap trend, contrary to the SMFS/TSI paradigm, that biased the PMOD composite decadal trend downward during solar cycles 21 and 22. The different choice of gap bridging data is clearly the cause of the ACRIM and PMOD TSI trending difference, agreeing closely in both magnitude and direction. We also analyze two recently proposed statistical TSI composites. Unfortunately their methodology cannot account for the gap degradation of the ERBE experiment and their resulting uncertainties are too large to uniquely distinguish between the trending of the ACRIM and PMOD composites. Our analysis supports the ACRIM TSI increasing trend during the 1980 to 2000 period, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.

China surface temperatures driven by natural forces

Long Li, Yong Zha. Satellite-based regional warming hiatus in China and its implication. Science of The Total Environment. Volume 648, 15 January 2019, Pages 1394-1402

The slowdown in global warming since 1998, often termed the global warming hiatus. Reconciling the “hiatus” is a main focus in the 2013 climate change conference. Accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal trends in surface air temperature (SAT) is helps to better understand the “hiatus” during the period. This article presents a satellite-based regional warming simulation to diagnose the “hiatus” for 2001–2015 in China. Results show that the rapid warming is mainly in western and southern China, such as Yunnan (mean ± standard deviation: 0.39 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1), Tibet (0.22 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), Taiwan (0.21 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), and Sichuan (0.19 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1). On the contrary, there is a cooling trend by 0.29 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1 in northern China during the recent 15 yr, where a warming rate about 0.38 ± 0.11 °C (10 yr)−1 happened for 1960–2000. Overall, satellite simulation shows that the warming rate is reduced to −0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. The changes in underlying surface Earth’s orbit, solar radiation and atmospheric counter radiation (USEOSRACR) cause China’s temperature rise about 0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. A combination of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other natural forcing (ONAT, predominately volcanic activity, and atmosphere and ocean circulation) explain another part of temperature trend by approximately −0.04 °C (10 yr)−1. We conclude that there is a regional warming hiatus, a pause or a slowdown in China, and imply that GHGs-induced warming is suppressed by ONAT in the early 21st century.

North America has been cooling since 1998

Gan, Z., Guan, X., Kong, X., Guo, R., Huang, H., Huang, W., & Xu, Y. (2019). The key role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in minimum temperature over North America during global warming slowdown. Earth and Space Science, 6. https://doi.org/10.1029/ 2018EA000443

Daily minimum temperature (Tmin) is an important variable in both global and regional climate changes, and its variability can greatly affect the ecological system. In the early 21st century, warming slowdown is seen over the North Hemisphere and North America is one of the major cooling centers. In this study, we found that Tmin experienced an obvious decline in North America during warming slowdown period. Such Tmin decline is closely related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO); the correlation between the decadal components of Tmin and AMO reached 0.71 during 1950–2014. According to composite analysis, the AMO on the positive (negative) phase takes two low‐pressure (high‐pressure) systems in the northeastern Pacific and the North Atlantic at night, accompanied by cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulations and warm (cold) advection in North America. Therefore, the analyses conclude that the Tmin decline during warming slowdown period is a result of the synchronous decrease of the AMO. The results emphasize the key role of AMO on the decadal variation of Tmin in North America.

Arbitrary adjustments of US temperature data unjustified

“NOAA massively tampers with US temperature data, to turn a century of cooling into warming.” click here