Tag Archives: surface temperature

Systematic errors in Resplandy et al 2018 paper highlights the problem of inadequate peer-review

“However Lewis, who has authored several peer-reviewed papers on the question of climate sensitivity and has worked with some of the world’s leading climate scientists, has found that the warming trend in the Resplandy paper differs from that calculated from the underlying data included with the paper.” click here and here

Heat-mortality impacts declined over the past decades

Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera et al. A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate Environment International Volume 111, February 2018, Pages 239-246
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.006

Background

Temporal variation of temperature-health associations depends on the combination of two pathways: pure adaptation to increasingly warmer temperatures due to climate change, and other attenuation mechanisms due to non-climate factors such as infrastructural changes and improved health care. Disentangling these pathways is critical for assessing climate change impacts and for planning public health and climate policies. We present evidence on this topic by assessing temporal trends in cold- and heat-attributable mortality risks in a multi-country investigation.

Methods

Trends in country-specific attributable mortality fractions (AFs) for cold and heat (defined as below/above minimum mortality temperature, respectively) in 305 locations within 10 countries (1985–2012) were estimated using a two-stage time-series design with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models. To separate the contribution of pure adaptation to increasing temperatures and active changes in susceptibility (non-climate driven mechanisms) to heat and cold, we compared observed yearly-AFs with those predicted in two counterfactual scenarios: trends driven by either (1) changes in exposure-response function (assuming a constant temperature distribution), (2) or changes in temperature distribution (assuming constant exposure-response relationships). This comparison provides insights about the potential mechanisms and pace of adaptation in each population.

Results

Heat-related AFs decreased in all countries (ranging from 0.45–1.66% to 0.15–0.93%, in the first and last 5-year periods, respectively) except in Australia, Ireland and UK. Different patterns were found for cold (where AFs ranged from 5.57–15.43% to 2.16–8.91%), showing either decreasing (Brazil, Japan, Spain, Australia and Ireland), increasing (USA), or stable trends (Canada, South Korea and UK). Heat-AF trends were mostly driven by changes in exposure-response associations due to modified susceptibility to temperature, whereas no clear patterns were observed for cold.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest a decrease in heat-mortality impacts over the past decades, well beyond those expected from a pure adaptation to changes in temperature due to the observed warming. This indicates that there is scope for the development of public health strategies to mitigate heat-related climate change impacts. In contrast, no clear conclusions were found for cold. Further investigations should focus on identification of factors defining these changes in susceptibility.

Cold temperatures pose greater health risk than warm, India

Fu SH, Gasparrini A, Rodriguez PS, Jha P (2018) Mortality attributable to hot and cold ambient temperatures in India: a nationally representative case-crossover study. PLoS Med 15(7): e1002619. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002619

Author summary

Why was this study done?

Very few studies from low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) have examined daily hot and cold temperature effects on cause-specific mortality.

  • This is, to our knowledge, the first study to estimate cause-specific deaths attributable to daily hot and cold temperatures in India using nationally representative mortality data spanning a 13-year period.

What did the researchers do and find?

  • We used a case-crossover method and distributed-lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to assess the nonlinear and delayed associations between temperature and mortality risk.
  • We found substantial numbers of cause-specific deaths attributable to moderately cold temperature, which were approximately 12 times greater than deaths due to extremely cold temperature and 42 times greater than deaths due to extremely hot temperature.
  • Our results also showed that moderately cold temperature was associated with the highest number of deaths from stroke at ages 30–69 years and from respiratory diseases at ages 70 years and above.

What do these findings mean?

  • Public health authorities should consider the detrimental effects of moderately cold and extremely hot temperatures in their mitigation strategies, particularly as the absolute population totals in India exposed to moderately cold and extremely hot temperatures have risen by about 270 and 10 million, respectively, in the last three decades.
  • To provide reliable national estimates of temperature–mortality associations in other LMICs, large-scale and nationally representative mortality data are needed.

 

Be sure to do your homework when investigating surface temperatures.

“Everything the New York Times said in that 2006 article was fact-free superstition, junk science and fake news, which is their standard operating procedure.  And of course they censor anyone who tells the truth.” click here

RSS satellite data set corrupted, no longer reliable

“…an interesting analysis by Professor Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr Sebastian Lüning (at diekaltesonne.de/schwerer-klimadopingverdacht-gegen-rss-satellitentemperaturen-nachtraglich-um-anderthalb-grad-angehoben) concludes that his dataset, having been thus tampered with, can no longer be considered reliable. The analysis sheds light on how the RSS dataset was massaged. The two scientists conclude that the ex-post-facto post-processing of the satellite data by RSS was insufficiently justified.” click here

July not Californias hottest month evah….

“Average maximum temperatures in California this July weren’t in the top ten, and were four degrees cooler than 1931.” click here

Climate warmer in Roman and Midieval times

Jan Esper, David C. Frank, Mauri Timonen, Eduardo Zorita, Rob J. S. Wilson, Jürg Luterbacher, Steffen Holzkämper, Nils Fischer, Sebastian Wagner, Daniel Nievergelt, Anne Verstege, Ulf Büntgen. Orbital forcing of tree-ring data Nature Climate Change, volume 2, 862–866 (2012).

Solar insolation changes, resulting from long-term oscillations of orbital configurations1, are an important driver of Holocene climate2,3. The forcing is substantial over the past 2,000 years, up to four times as large as the 1.6 W m−2 net anthropogenic forcing since 1750 (ref. 4), but the trend varies considerably over time, space and with season5. Using numerous high-latitude proxy records, slow orbital changes have recently been shown6 to gradually force boreal summer temperature cooling over the common era. Here, we present new evidence based on maximum latewood density data from northern Scandinavia, indicating that this cooling trend was stronger (−0.31 °C per 1,000 years, ±0.03 °C) than previously reported, and demonstrate that this signature is missing in published tree-ring proxy records. The long-term trend now revealed in maximum latewood density data is in line with coupled general circulation models7,8 indicating albedo-driven feedback mechanisms and substantial summer cooling over the past two millennia in northern boreal and Arctic latitudes. These findings, together with the missing orbital signature in published dendrochronological records, suggest that large-scale near-surface air-temperature reconstructions9,10,11,12,13 relying on tree-ring data may underestimate pre-instrumental temperatures including warmth during Medieval and Roman times.